Carson Kelly declines mutual option and leaves the Cubs

Carson Kelly turns down mutual option and leaves the Cubs

Carson Kelly has done everything except sign the goodbye letter. Opting against his portion of the $7.5 million mutual option, Carson Kelly collected his $1.5 million buyout before sharing a statement directed at Cubs supporters that reads like a parting message. The Cubs should make sure that departure isn’t permanent.

an rbi brought to you by carson kelly. pic.twitter.com/hJBJvQ8r4b

— https://x.com/Cubs/status/2094576258038272175

The case for keeping Kelly starts with a simple reality: who catches if not him? Miguel Amaya, Kelly’s backup, finished the year hitting .237 with a .717 OPS across 83 games and remains under team control for three more seasons. Injuries nearly wiped out Amaya’s entire 2025 season, and the organization has viewed him primarily as a backup for years. Because of that track record, the front office is unlikely to hand him the starting job outright.

The prospect pipeline and market realities

The heir apparent simply needs more time. Advancing to No. 2 on MLB Pipeline’s ranking of Cubs prospects, Owen Ayers is a 25-year-old switch-hitting prospect who posted a .289 batting average alongside 25 home runs over three minor league levels in 2026. He boasts a genuine cannon for an arm, but his receiving remains a work in progress, his bat cooled off in Triple-A, and he has not yet made his major league debut. Moises Ballesteros was another option behind the plate, but the Cubs traded him to the Angels at the deadline last season. That leaves no true successor ready to step in for Kelly.

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The free agent market offers no immediate rescue either. With the Cubs needing to build their pitching rotation almost from the ground up this offseason, signing Kelly now locks down the catching position and gives the team a steady anchor for a budding rotation. Spotrac estimates Kelly’s value at a flat $15 million per year, projecting his next deal at around $30 million over two years. That expenditure is minor compared to the heavy spending the front office must undertake across the rest of the roster.

A two-year deal at a raise over the option he turned down keeps Kelly in place while Ayers develops, ending right when the young prospect should be ready for the majors. While three years for a catcher turning 33 next summer crosses the line of where the club should commit, anything short of that makes paying Kelly an easy call.