Democrats Chase Supermajority in Washington State House

Seven. That is the number of state House seats Democrats need to flip to reach 66 — a two-thirds supermajority that would let them pass constitutional amendments and tax increases without a single Republican vote. As of election night, with more than 2 million ballots counted and thousands still to be tallied, Washington State Standard reported that Democrats were on course to pick up at least that many, strengthening a grip on Olympia they already hold with a 59-39 majority in the House and 30-19 in the Senate.

All 98 House seats and 24 of the 49 Senate seats were on the ballot Tuesday, and the early returns pointed one direction. Democratic political consultant Dean Nielsen put it bluntly in a text message:

“What should I wear for the funeral for the Washington State Republican Party?”

Southwest Washington Turns Blue

The Democratic gains were concentrated where pundits expected them: southwest Washington. In the 17th District, Republican Reps. Kevin Waters of Stevenson and David Stuebe of Washougal trailed Democrats Ben Christly and Diana Perez, both of Vancouver. Next door in the 18th District, GOP Reps. Stephanie McClintock and John Ley, both of Vancouver, were behind Democrats Randi Knott and Deken Letinich. And in the 26th District, Renee Hernandez Greenfield led Republican Katy Cornell — a pastor whose campaign was damaged by resurfaced sermon videos — by nearly 10 points.

Washington state early election results: Where key races and measures stand

But the results went beyond the expected map. In the Puyallup-area 25th District, GOP Rep. Michael Keaton trailed David Berg, while his seatmate Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen held a narrow lead of just 109 votes over Jenn Marie Strickling. In the Yakima Valley’s Latino-heavy 14th District, incumbent Republicans Gloria Mendoza and Deb Manjarrez each trailed their Democratic challengers, Chelsea Dimas and Ezequiel Morfin, by more than 10 percentage points. And in the 12th District covering Chelan County and crossing the Cascades into eastern King and Snohomish counties, Rep. Brian Burnett trailed Democrat Stacy Willoughby by 3 points, even as his seatmate Mike Steele cruised to a comfortable lead.

A Rare Senate Pickup in Play

The 35th District Senate race — covering Mason County and parts of Thurston and Kitsap counties — represented a rare Democratic opportunity this cycle. Democrat Carolina Mejia led incumbent Republican Sen. Drew MacEwen by 3 points, a margin of 1,380 votes out of roughly 43,000 counted. Democrats also appeared poised to hold the open 42nd District Senate seat in Whatcom County, where port commissioner Michael Shepard held a comfortable lead of nearly 13 points over Republican Erika Creydt — a deficit state Republican Party Chair Jim Walsh insisted his party was not abandoning.

Washington state early election results — key races and measures

Walsh offered the counterpoint to Nielsen’s eulogy: he saw Democrats picking up a couple of seats but falling short of the seven needed for the supermajority. With more ballots to be counted in the coming days, he said, the results could still change.

Democrats Turn on Democrats

Even as Republicans reeled, several Democratic incumbents were losing to challengers from their own party’s left flank. In the 48th District, Jessica Forsythe led incumbent Rep. Amy Walen by 1,051 votes out of more than 25,000 counted — a rematch of an August primary separated by just 17 votes — after Walen voted against the high-earners income tax the Legislature approved this year. In Seattle, progressive Kelabe Tewolde defeated Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos, the Legislature’s longest-serving member, by 24.5 points. In Pierce County’s 29th District, Krista Perez — despite a drunk driving arrest in August — led Rep. Melanie Morgan, also criticized by progressives over the income tax vote, by more than 3 points.

Other intraparty contests remained tight. In the 32nd District, progressive state Rep. Cindy Ryu led Democratic Sen. Jesse Salomon by 352 votes, less than 1 point. Longtime Seattle Rep. Gerry Pollet declared victory over fellow Democrat Will Dreher, a former federal prosecutor who campaigned on regulating artificial intelligence, with a 30-point lead.

“Thank you to every one of my constituents who took the time to speak to me on their doorsteps, at the grocery store, or at the park,” Pollet said in a statement. “I’ll be taking your stories with me, and I want to keep hearing from you. See you again soon.”

And Rep. Tarra Simmons, the first formerly incarcerated Washington state lawmaker, led fellow Democrat Daria Ilgen by fewer than 500 votes out of nearly 49,000 counted, despite a year of ethics complaints.

Whether the Democrats’ supermajority math holds will depend on the ballots still in the mail. But by 7 a.m. Wednesday, the party holding 59 House seats was within striking distance of 66 — and the Republicans watching the count had few places left to look for good news.