Democrats on track to gain six seats in Hawaii Legislature as five Republicans trail

Heading into Tuesday night, Hawaii Republicans were bracing for a difficult midterm cycle without a presidential race at the top of the ballot to drive turnout. What emerged from the second printout of results, however, was a rout that exceeded even the gloomiest expectations: five Republican incumbents were trailing Democratic challengers, putting the GOP on track to lose six seats in a Legislature where they already held a slender minority. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported that Democrats were flirting with expanding their dominance by six, just as University of Hawaii political scientist Colin Moore had predicted it would not be a good year for Republicans.

Of the 76 seats in Hawaii’s Legislature, 37 were contested Tuesday, and the losses were concentrated in the House, where eight of ten Republicans on the ballot were facing serious challenges.

A Lahaina Wildfire Survivor Could Make History

The most closely watched race was in Waihee-Lahaina-Lahainaluna, where Republican Rep. Elle Cochran faced a two-front battle from Democrat Sne Patel and Green Party candidate Pa’ele Kiakona. Both challengers were neck and neck with the incumbent, according to the Star-Advertiser. Kiakona, a high-profile advocate for survivors of the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires representing the grassroots group Lahaina Strong, would become the first third-party candidate ever elected to the state Legislature if he pulled ahead. Patel, president of the Lahaina Town Action Committee, mounted an equally strong campaign in the district devastated by the fires.

Union-Backed Plumber Defeats Incumbent

Elsewhere, Democrat Jamie Wataru, a state-employed journeyman plumber and former Hawaii president of the United Public Workers union, held a wide lead over Republican Rep. Joe Gedeon of Hawaii Kai-Kalama Valley. In a rematch on Oahu’s west side, Democratic challenger Micah Aiu was again beating Republican Rep. Garner Shimizu of Moanalua-Aliamanu-Foster Village—the third election between the two, with Aiu winning in 2022 and Shimizu taking the seat back in 2024. Republican Rep. Julie Reyes Oda of Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point was also flirting with defeat against Democrat Rose Martinez, who had served one term before losing to Reyes Oda in 2024.

Court Forces Primary Rerun over Ballot Error

Several races without incumbents shaped the new map. Democrat Danielle Bass dominated Republican Kelly Kitashima in the special contest for Senate District 18, a seat vacated when Sen. Michelle Kidani resigned on June 30 for health reasons and which Gov. Josh Green filled by appointing Bass on Aug. 9. In a unique rerun, Republican Rep. Kanani Souza held a modest lead over Republican challenger Sheila Medeiros in Kapolei-Makakilo after the Hawaii Supreme Court invalidated their Aug. 8 primary, which had ended in a tie after county officials mistakenly gave two ballots to voters registered in a different district.

One open Senate seat remained too close to call: former Republican House member Bob McDermott, who served 16 years in the chamber, was narrowly leading Democrat Markus Owens, a former University of Hawaii baseball player and broadcast commentator, to succeed Sen. Kurt Fevella. McDermott had tied Fevella in the primary and won a random drawing to break the tie, but Fevella’s challenge to that result was filed after a deadline. In another open contest, Democrat Corey Rosenlee, a public school teacher and former Hawaii State Teachers Association leader, overwhelmed Republican Danny Degracia to succeed Rep. Elijah Pierick, who had left the House to run for Senate but lost badly to incumbent Sen. Rachele Lamosao.

Why the Wave Happened

Colin Moore, the UH political scientist cited by the Star-Advertiser, attributed the Republican decline to the absence of a presidential election year and the unpopularity of President Trump among Hawaii voters.

“I don’t predict it’s going to be a good year for the Republicans just because of these background conditions of President Trump’s unpopularity and the fact that he’s not on the ballot, which usually lowers Republican turnout,” Moore said. “If they keep what they have, I think that would be a pretty fantastic result for them.”

The numbers bear that out. Republicans hold just three of the 25 Senate seats, and Fevella’s was the only one in play Tuesday. In the 51-member House, five of the eight Republicans on the ballot—including Rep. Diamond Garcia of Ewa-Kapolei, who faced Democrat Anthony Paris—were trailing. Democrats Tricia Nakamatsu and Ian Ross cruised to victory in open seats replacing retiring Sen. Karl Rhoads and Rep. Della Au Belatti, respectively, the latter having left to run for lieutenant governor.

With final results still pending in a few races, Democrats are flirting with expanding their dominance in the Legislature, while University of Hawaii political scientist Colin Moore said Republicans holding their current seats would be a fantastic result.