Migrant Caravan Sets Out From Southern Mexico Bound for US After Midterms - Al Jazeera

A new migrant caravan of approximately 1,500 people is currently moving through southern Mexico, spurred by a sense of hope following the recent shift in power within the United States Congress.

The group, which began its journey on Tuesday from Tapachula near the Guatemalan border, explicitly said that the midterm election results—which saw Democrats flip multiple seats in both the House and the Senate—have influenced their decision to push toward the US border.

This movement, dubbed “God With Us,” represents the third such caravan attempt since September. While caravans are a recurring feature of the regional migration crisis, the current political climate in Washington has injected a new layer of volatility into the situation.

President Donald Trump, responding to the reports, took to Truth Social on Thursday to threaten Mexico with a doubling of tariffs if the country fails to halt the groups, labeling the marchers as individuals that “various countries don’t want.”

The stakes for those on the ground are starkly human. Many of the participants, including families with young children, are fleeing conditions that have left them stranded in Tapachula for months with minimal access to steady employment, healthcare, or education.

For migrants like 47-year-old Cesar Sandoval, a Nicaraguan national who was previously deported from the US, the political turnover in the American midterms feels like a potential opening. “There might be a light at the end of the tunnel, a way for us to get in,” Sandoval said. “We believe the Democrats will help us.”

The Political Shift and Border Policy

The Democratic gains in the midterm elections were broad, but one specific victory has drawn particular attention regarding immigration policy. Gina Hinojosa has secured the governorship of Texas. President Trump has already signaled that he is putting the incoming governor on notice regarding the caravan, framing the migrants’ actions as a direct response to the “perceived loss” his party suffered in the midterms.

Gina hinojosa at the afl cio cope convention in

The situation highlights a deepening divide in how the US manages its southern boundary. While the current administration maintains strict entry restrictions and continues to prioritize deportations, the migrants are banking on a change in enforcement philosophy once the new congressional members take their seats.

However, experts warn that the reality on the ground remains harsh. Ivan Porraz, a researcher at the College of the Southern Border, noted the persistence of the current enforcement regime, stating, “As long as Trump remains president, the deportations will not stop.”

Enforcement Tensions in Chiapas

The path forward for the “God With Us” caravan is fraught with logistical and legal hurdles. The group aims to reach Mexico City—a journey of over 1,000 kilometers—to seek protection from the Mexican government.

Yet, the Mexican authorities are not acting uniformly. While the 1,500-strong group managed to cross into southern Mexico without immediate resistance on Sunday, a second, smaller group of roughly 100 migrants faced a different reality on Tuesday.

According to reports from Agence France-Presse (AFP), Mexico’s National Guard, along with immigration and police units, moved to intercept that smaller group as they attempted to cross the Suchiate River from Guatemala.

Footage of the encounter showed officers surrounding the migrants, resulting in approximately 40 detentions. This tactical shift by Mexican authorities underscores the pressure they face to manage the flow of people while balancing domestic requirements and international threats of economic retaliation from the United States.

For the thousands of migrants currently stuck in transit hubs like Tapachula, the decision to join a caravan is often a last resort born of desperation. The contrast between their aspirations and the tightening security measures at the border remains the defining tension of this movement.

As the caravan continues its march toward the north, the question of whether the political change in Washington will translate into a change in border reality remains the primary uncertainty for everyone involved.