NWS El Niño Forecast Predicts Milder Temperatures for Northern Plains

A strong El Niño climate pattern is expected to bring milder than average temperatures to the Northern Plains this winter, according to the National Weather Service.

The shift follows last year’s weak La Niña pattern and presents a different set of challenges for regional residents. While the warmer trend is more predictable, precipitation levels remain uncertain for the area. Wahpeton Daily News reported that meteorologist Blake Rafferty with the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks expects the pattern to favor different trends depending on specific geography.

For much of the country, the current climate setup favors increased moisture. “Some parts of the country, they get more snow and rain compared to usual. Places that’d be favored for this would be California, Colorado,” Rafferty said.

NOAA forecasts a wet south, warmer north as El Nino impacts winter weather in US — ABC News

In the Northern Plains, however, the influence of the jet stream is less direct. The atmospheric flow tends to split around the Northern Rockies, creating a “gray area” for local weather forecasting. Because of this, the National Weather Service cannot definitively favor either above-average or below-average precipitation for the region.

While temperatures may stay warmer, the type of precipitation residents encounter could change. The El Niño pattern often skews the moisture profile toward liquid or mixed events rather than consistent, dry snow.

“That could mean when we have precipitation come through, maybe we get more mixed rain type events than just pure snow,” Rafferty added.

This potential for rain-snow mixes and warmer air is reflected in the seasonal snow outlook. The Red River Valley typically sees an average of roughly 50 inches of snow per season. This year, the forecast suggests a lower total.

Winter forecast 2026-2027: El Niño to reshape snow, cold across the US — AccuWeather

Metric	Forecasted Range / Average
Expected Snowfall (Red River Valley)	30 to 40 inches
Typical Seasonal Snowfall Average	Approximately 50 inches
Forecasted Major Winter Events	3 to 7 events
Average Major Winter Events	4.5 events

Despite the lower expected snowfall, the frequency of severe weather remains a variable. The National Weather Service notes that the region typically experiences 4.5 major winter events per season. For the upcoming 2026-2027 season, forecasters project between 3 and 7 of these events.

The prospect of a milder winter does not necessarily mean a lack of volatility. Even in years dominated by El Niño, the central part of the continent is susceptible to intense, sudden weather shifts.

“Yes, we can still get major snowstorms in an El Niño year. There are some very significant snow storms that have occurred in El Niño years,” Rafferty said.

For those living in North Dakota, the primary concern is not the total accumulation of snow, but the intensity of the storms that do arrive. “That’s the thing, living in North Dakota, in the center of the continent, we expect winter. It’s just how harsh of a winter,” Rafferty cautioned.

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