Rick Thoman Discusses Accuracy of Alaska Weather Stories

Alaskans often share stories about the changing climate, but historical records frequently tell a different story than local memory.

Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Preparedness, notes that while some observations are accurate, others fall victim to how the human brain processes information. Thoman, who has spent 43 years studying weather and climate, works within the University of Alaska Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center.

“Our brains have not evolved to be logbooks,” Thoman told the Geophysical Institute. “There are big evolutionary advantages to generalizing patterns so you can make short-term predictions. You do that successfully, and you might get a better chance to survive.”

Winter rain is the new normal

One of the most common complaints among Fairbanks residents is the increasing frequency of rain-on-snow events during the winter. To many, these rainstorms feel like a recent and unprecedented phenomenon that disrupts the traditional frozen landscape.

However, Thoman found that historical data does not entirely support the idea that these events are brand new. Fairbanks saw spikes in rain-on-snow occurrences during the 1920s and 1930s, as well as another period in the 1960s. The distinction lies in the consistency of the pattern.

What has changed is the regularity of these storms. “What's completely new now is that almost every winter we have at least one of these rain events. For most of this century, with the exception of last winter, they're happening with regularity,” climate specialist Rick Thoman said.

Memory vs- statistical reality

The gap between what people remember and what the data shows often stems from “bookend” weather events. An exceptionally harsh winter or a single record-breaking month can color an entire decade of memory.

In Fairbanks, for example, many residents claim the 1980s were a period of intense cold. This perception is anchored by two specific, extreme months: a very cold December in 1980 and an even colder January in 1989. Despite these two frozen bookends, Thoman said that the years between them actually included some of the warmest winters on record for the region.

Similarly, while there is a common perception that summers and autumns are becoming rainier, the data presents a more complex picture.

Climate Factor	Common Local Perception	Data-Driven Reality
Winter Rain	A brand new phenomenon	Occurred in 1920s/30s and 1960s; now happens annually
Summer Rainfall	Increasingly rainy summers	No clear multi-decade trend in total precipitation
Winter Temperatures	Winters “just used to be colder”	Alaska’s average winter temperature rose 7 degrees Fahrenheit (1949–2020)

The human cost of shifting seasons

While general weather stories may occasionally drift from the statistical truth, certain groups are witnessing undeniable shifts that carry heavy economic and survival stakes. Those who rely on predictable seasonal transitions—such as farmers and subsistence hunters—are seeing the practical impact of a changing environment.

Rick Thoman Discusses Accuracy of Alaska Weather Stories

For these communities, the “so what” of climate change isn’t found in a spreadsheet, but in crop success rates and the stability of hunting grounds. Shifts in seasonality affect everything from the availability of land-based resources to the diminishing reliability of sea ice.

The most significant data point remains the warming trend of the Alaskan winter. Between 1949 and 2020, the average winter temperature in Alaska increased by 7 degrees Fahrenheit, a shift that has made extended periods of extreme cold less common than in previous generations.

While the Geophysical Institute continues to provide data through its Alaska Science Forum, Thoman suggests that the value of a century of meticulous recordkeeping cannot be overstated. Without those logs, the nuances of a warming Arctic might be lost to the natural tendency of the human mind to generalize.

“We haven’t evolved to integrate two lifetimes’ worth of environmental change,” Thoman said.