The Phoenix Suns face the Denver Nuggets tonight at the Mortgage Matchup Center with both teams seeking momentum after sluggish starts, and sports analysts have zeroed in on three expert-backed bets for the matchup. SI.com reported that the 1-2 Suns and 2-2 Nuggets are looking to correct early defensive and offensive struggles.
Can Nikola Jokic Dominate the Glass Without Mark Williams?
Nikola Jokic led the NBA in rebounds per game during the 2025-26 season, but he has seen those numbers dip slightly early in the 2026-27 campaign, averaging 10.5 rebounds per night. The one-time NBA Finals MVP has failed to reach 10 boards in two of his four games so far. However, Peter Dewey of SI.com projects Jokic to clear his rebound prop of 12-plus boards against Phoenix on Friday night.
This detail of the Nets new ABA court might be the coolest thing any NBA team has ever done. They incorporated the name of EVERY Nets player in history into it.Johan Petro, Mirza Teletovic, even Shaquille Harrison. If they wore a Nets jersey at any point, their name is here. pic.twitter.com/hFSNgj694p
— https://x.com/Joe_Martin13/status/2109710228581449836
The matchup favors the Denver center because the Suns are missing starting center Mark Williams due to an early-season injury. Without Williams anchoring the paint, Phoenix ranks 28th in the league in opponent rebounds per game and dead last in rebound percentage at 42.9 percent. Jokic heads into this contest fresh off a 13-rebound performance in a win over New Orleans.
Why Are Experts Betting the Nuggets Team Total UNDER 117.5 Points?
Even with Phoenix struggling defensively, Action Network analyst Ameer Tyree recommends betting the Denver Nuggets team UNDER 117.5 points. Denver currently ranks dead last in road points per game at 94.0 following early-season trips to Oklahoma City and New Orleans. The team has experienced middle-of-the-road shooting efficiency while missing the perimeter spacing usually provided by Cam Johnson.
Johnson has been sidelined with an ankle sprain suffered in the season opener and remains questionable for Friday. Without a true third scoring option behind Jokic and Jamal Murray, Denver’s floor spacing remains crowded. Furthermore, both Phoenix and Denver rank among the bottom six teams in pace, limiting overall possessions and capping the ceiling for a runaway scoring night.
How Do Odds and Defensive Metrics Shape the Spread?
Quinn Allen of Covers.com notes that the Denver Nuggets enter Friday’s matchup as 3.5-point favorites. Phoenix currently ranks last in the NBA in defensive rating, surrendering at least 122 points in each of their first three games. With the Suns missing Mark Williams in the interior, Denver is positioned to generate second-chance opportunities off the glass.
The Nuggets have won both of their victories this season by at least six points. While Denver’s offense has not yet hit peak rhythm, the defensive vulnerabilities of the Suns provide an opening for the visitors to control the interior.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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