New Zealand First Polls at 8 Percent After Winston Peters Controversy

With less than three months until New Zealand goes to the polls, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters faces a strategic fork in the road after a 1News-Verian poll recorded his party dropping three points to 8 percent.

Polling Slide Follows Parliamentary Clash and Diplomatic Friction

The survey was conducted between Saturday and Tuesday, though 1News pulled out of the field early due to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon summoning his MPs to Wellington. Consequently, the poll collected only 847 respondents out of a usual 1000-person sample size, leaving a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent while National remained unchanged at 29 percent.

The dip follows a period of soaring momentum for New Zealand First, which reached its strongest Reid Research result in nine years at 11.5 percent in mid-July. That momentum slowed after Peters engaged in a parliamentary exchange during the general debate. Heckled by Chinese-born Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan, Peters told him to go back to your own country and added, that’s where they lie like a flatfish.

The remarks drew formal protest from the Chinese Embassy in New Zealand. While the office of the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that Peters stood by the comments—and Peters initially claimed he made them in his capacity as party leader—the fallout was immediate. Opposition MPs, the Chinese-Kiwi community, and coalition partner National condemned the rhetoric, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon calling the statements racist.

Tensions Between Pro-Industry Stalwarts and Culture-War Fringes

New Zealand First currently relies on two distinct factions: pro-industry, mining, exporting, and economic-growth advocates who prioritize production over environmental concerns, alongside a newer demographic of fringe culture-war antagonists.

Deputy leader Shane Jones broadly represents the first group, leading the charge on anti-immigration messaging—including a warning about a butter chicken tsunami resulting from an Indian free trade agreement. While Jones mostly avoids polarizing culture-war subjects like Covid vaccination injuries or public bathroom access, party stalwarts are growing fatigued by Peters centering his public messaging on fringe grievances.

With National polling below 30 percent, centrist voters are up for grabs.

Risking the Coalition Base and Repeating Past Campaign Missteps

Beyond failing to capture center-ground voters, New Zealand First risks bleeding its own base toward Act, its coalition partner and political rival. Act is currently climbing to 9 percent amid an unusual period of drift, drawing support from voters who back the return of the current coalition but are losing patience with Peters’ distractions.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters addresses the party's campaign launch on Sunday in Auckland — Photo: 1news

The situation carries echoes of the 2020 election, when Peters plummeted from serving as deputy prime minister and foreign minister to being entirely unseated from Parliament. Comparing the 2017 campaign—where Peters targeted National and Labour voters while positioning himself as a kingmaker—to his 2020 run reveals a stark strategic contrast.

In 2020, Peters campaigned on his partnership with a popular Labour government led by Jacinda Ardern, promising a relentlessly positive tour. That approach fractured almost immediately when Ardern postponed the election date from September to October due to an Auckland community cluster while the rest of the country remained at Level 2 restrictions.

The Strategic Decision Facing New Zealand First

As pandemic-era restrictions blocked his traditional town hall gatherings, Peters pivoted to running an aggressive campaign directly opposing Ardern, whose personal popularity was then surging. Senior party figures, including Ron Mark and Tracey Martin, opposed that tactical shift at the time, viewing it as a fatal error that alienated voters.

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With less than three months remaining until election day, Peters must decide whether to anchor his campaign on the disciplined economic priorities championed by his party’s industrial base or continue appealing to the fringe culture-war voters who risk alienating moderate conservatives and fueling Act’s upward trajectory.