Eskom Achieves Record Energy Availability Amid Rising Fleet Reliability

South Africa has recorded 448 consecutive days without loadshedding since 16 May 2025 as Eskom achieved an operational Energy Availability Factor of 67.24% for the financial year-to-date ending 6 August 2026, though electricity generation volumes dropped amid a shrinking market and rising independent generation.

Operational Gains and Fleet Reliability at Eskom

The operational performance of South Africa’s national electricity supplier reflects a progressive shift from recovery to reliability and sustainability. Sustained improvements across the generation fleet are delivering a more dependable electricity supply, significantly reducing reliance on diesel generation and reinforcing the country’s energy security.

For the financial year-to-date covering 1 April to 6 August 2026, the Energy Availability Factor improved to 67.24%, marking a 7.19% increase from the 60.05% recorded during the corresponding period last year. This performance represents the highest financial year-to-date EAF achieved since 18 November 2020. Compared with the same period three years ago, the EAF has risen by 11.9%, returning approximately 5.9GW of generating capacity to the grid.

Plant stability is further underscored by the fact that more than 85% of the coal fleet currently operates at EAF levels between 70% and 92%. Unplanned outages between 31 July and 6 August 2026 dropped to an average of 7,718MW, down from 10,758MW during the same week last year. This reduction of 3,039MW, or 28.3% year-on-year, is nearly equivalent to the generating capacity of an entire power station such as Tutuka.

Collapsing Diesel Expenses and Falling Outage Metrics

The rebound in generation plant reliability has dramatically altered the utility’s financial outlay for supplemental diesel generation. For the financial year-to-date ending 6 August 2026, diesel expenditure stands at R948.46 million, compared to R5.73 billion over the same period last year.

The Open-Cycle Gas Turbine load factor averaged 1.17%, down sharply from 9.33% in the previous year. This translates into an 83.44% reduction in diesel expenditure. Concurrently, the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor improved to 16.12% from 22.60% in the corresponding period last year. Planned maintenance remained steady, with the Planned Capacity Loss Factor averaging 10.84% between 31 July and 6 August 2026.

Load Reduction Eradication and Extended Power Stability

The extended absence of loadshedding has sustained a run of 448 consecutive days without loadshedding since 16 May 2025. Demand was met 100% of the time between 1 April and 6 August 2026, and the utility’s winter outlook published on 22 April 2026 continues to project no loadshedding through 31 August 2026.

Simultaneously, the Load Reduction Eradication Programme continues to normalize supply quality in local communities. Six provinces remain load reduction-free, with approximately 1.196 million customers removed from schedules, representing 70.8% of the 1.69 million customers originally affected. The proportion of customers impacted by load reduction has declined from a peak of 23.5% down to approximately 6.9% of the 7.2 million customer base. Work continues in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, and KwaZulu-Natal, with the utility remaining on track to eliminate load reduction in a seventh province by October 2026 and nationwide by 2027.

National Generation Volumes and Declining Utility Market Share

Despite the operational turnaround of the state-owned fleet, broader national electricity data points to a contracting market. Data published by Statistics South Africa shows that electricity generation fell 8.1% year on year in June to 18.9TWh, marking a 13th consecutive month of year-on-year decline. The unadjusted index of generation volumes came in at 89.8 against a 2019 base of 100, representing the weakest June in seven years of published data.

Eskom’s power stations produced 92.1TWh in the first half of 2026, representing a 9.5% decline year on year against a 7% decline for all producers combined. Calculations indicate that non-Eskom generation reached 15.6TWh for the six-month period, climbing 10.4% or 1.47TWh compared to the same period last year.

Grid Defection Pressures and Regional Trade Reversals

The contraction in utility demand highlights a structural squeeze for regulated power suppliers. Total demand is falling, and the utility’s share of that remaining demand is dropping even faster. Spreading fixed costs across fewer units puts upward pressure on tariffs, which in turn reinforces the incentives for customers with alternative generation capacity, rooftop solar, or wheeling agreements to leave the centralized grid.

At the same time, international power flows have reversed. South Africa’s electricity exports have declined sharply, and the country pulled in more power across its borders than it sent out in June. Statistics South Africa figures show 690GWh flowed into South Africa against 469GWh flowing out, with inflows rising 31.7% year on year while outflows fell 62.3%.