Ashley Lopez Says Democratic Wins Shift Texas to a Blue State

One of the biggest surprises of election night was Texas. Democrats didn’t just win one or two races—they won them all. James Talarico captured the U.S. Senate seat, Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s mansion, and in every single statewide contest on Tuesday’s ballot, a Democrat came out on top. The Associated Press also called the lower chamber of the state legislature for Texas Democrats, handing the party control of the House alongside the executive branch.

For a state where Republicans have maintained a near-monopoly on power for decades, the shift feels seismic. NPR political correspondent Ashley Lopez, speaking from Austin, put it bluntly: “As someone who lived in Texas for a decade, I cannot believe I’m saying this, but yeah. I mean, at least for the next few years, Texas is a blue state.” The fact that Democrats won up and down the ballot, practically shutting out Republicans from statewide office entirely, means the state will now be governed almost entirely by Democrats with no way to put that besides this being a blue state, at least for now.

Decades of Waiting, One Night of Change

Democrats have spent generations trying to flip Texas, and for generations they failed. Tuesday night broke that streak in spectacular fashion.

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So what changed? Democratic state party leaders poured resources into races early in the cycle, a strategy that proved remarkably effective at mobilizing voters. But the real story emerged in the voting booths, where two key groups moved decisively. Young people swung big toward Democrats this cycle, and Latino voters—long considered the swing group to watch in every Texas election cycle—shifted in massive numbers toward the Democratic column, creating a national swing from Republicans to Democrats among Latino voters that played out acutely in Texas.

Stephanie Valencia, a Latino pollster at Equis Research who spoke with Lopez, described how national trends played out specifically in the Lone Star State. She noted that Latino voters responded to economic pressures and policy failures they felt personally in their daily lives.

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“You saw this national environment playing out in a very specific way in Texas, from the economy and cost of living and the cost of gas to immigration overreach and a set of broken promises from Republicans that Latino voters felt very acutely, and especially in Texas.” — Stephanie Valencia, Latino pollster at Equis Research

Republicans Grapple with What Comes Next

The Republican response to the losses has been anything but unified, revealing deep fault lines within the party about how to move forward after losing control of every statewide office. Artemio Muniz, a Republican operative in Texas, told Lopez that the GOP will struggle to win back Latino voters if the party keeps moving to the right on immigration. He pointed to the party’s historical success under George W. Bush and Rick Perry, arguing that Republicans possess the pedigree to reconnect with Hispanic communities if they abandon what he termed “dinosaur politics.”

“But it won’t be hard, if we look back at our blueprint under George W. Bush, Rick Perry—guys that understand the Texas community and the Hispanic community, we have the pedigree within our party. So I think if we get enough people to wake up and change directions—right?—get away from this dinosaur politics mentality, I think we can do it within two years.” — Artemio Muniz, Republican operative in Texas

But that pragmatic view isn’t shared by everyone in the party. Don Huffines, the outgoing Republican comptroller who lost his own election after serving as a very conservative member of the state legislature for several years, took a starkly different position. He blamed the Republican losses on leaders not being conservative enough, and he specifically criticized outgoing Republican Governor Greg Abbott for playing to the center too much—a view Lopez noted that very few people outside the right wing of the party would agree with.

This divide between Muniz and Huffines illustrates the debate facing Texas Republicans now: whether to double down on hardline conservative base politics or return to the coalition-building approach of the Bush era. With Democrats controlling the governor’s office, the U.S. Senate seat, and the state House of Representatives, the GOP will need to come up with a plan to win back the power they managed to keep for multiple decades until now. Right now, all these Republican leaders on their way out will have to come up with a plan to win back control.

For now, though, the Lone Star State is wearing blue.