Boise State vs Texas State Odds and Expert Predictions for Week 10

No. 20 Boise State will host Texas State this Saturday at 8 p.m. Mountain time at Albertsons Stadium, with the game broadcast nationally on The CW. The Broncos enter the matchup riding a six-game winning streak and looking to solidify their standing as the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff.

How Do the Standings and Playoff Pictures Look for Both Teams?

Boise State sits at 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Pac-12 play, their only loss coming back in Week 1 against then-No. 2 Oregon. The Broncos are currently the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff, a stage they also reached in 2024.

Boise State will play Texas State for the first ever time this weekend. What should you know about the Bobcats? First and foremost, they boast one of the nation's best offenses statistically:https://t.co/e1tASVksVQ
— https://x.com/ShaunBroncoBeat/status/2115174131465687150

Meanwhile, Texas State arrives in Boise with a 4-3 overall record and a 2-1 mark in conference play. The Bobcats sit alone in third place in the Pac-12 standings, trailing only Boise State and Oregon State. After facing the Broncos, Texas State will travel to Corvallis next weekend to take on the Beavers.

Who Are the Featured Running Backs in This Matchup?

Saturday night’s game features a showcase of two of the top running backs in college football. Boise State’s Dylan Riley enters the weekend as the nation’s second-leading rusher, racking up 963 yards and nine total touchdowns. On the other side, Texas State senior Torrance Burgess Jr. ranks No. 5 in the country with 889 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Boise State vs. Texas State Football Best Bets & Computer Predictions – Oct. 31 — Photo: bleachernation.com

Leger Douzable of CBS Sports pointed to Boise State’s tendency to wear opponents down as the game progresses. Douzable noted that the Broncos frequently keep contests close through the first half before pulling away after intermission. Last week against Washington State, Riley was largely contained for three quarters before breaking loose for fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 33 and 72 yards in a 31-10 victory.

What Do the Betting Odds and Expert Picks Say?

DraftKings Sportsbook lists Boise State as a 10.5-point favorite over Texas State. The Broncos sit at -425 on the moneyline, while the Bobcats are +330. The over/under for total points is set at 63.5.

Instagram

National analysts have largely leaned toward the home team to maintain its momentum. Danny Kanell of CBS Sports acknowledged trying to fade the Broncos earlier in the season without success, noting that he is now trusting them to continue their current trajectory. Kanell highlighted the steady play of quarterback Maddux Madsen, who has thrown 14 touchdown passes with zero turnovers this year.

Mellor of CBS Sports emphasized the value of playing at Albertsons Stadium. Mellor suggested that the home-field advantage in Boise is worth up to three points in the betting line. He also pointed to Texas State’s struggling secondary as a potential vulnerability that Madsen and the passing offense could exploit.