Dan Sullivan Holds Narrow Lead Over Mary Peltola in Alaska Senate Count

Democrat Mary Peltola held a narrow 637-vote lead over Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan as Alaska’s uncompleted U.S. Senate count remained frozen, with a second candidate sharing the incumbent’s name pulling in thousands of votes, Newsweek reported.

Neither candidate cleared the 50 percent threshold of the 215,906 ballots tallied by November 8. If neither contender secures an outright majority by November 18, the state will initiate its ranked-choice tabulation.

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a Petersburg man, captured 3,600 votes—more than five times Peltola’s current margin. State ballot data analyzed by Newsweek indicated that a larger share of Sullivan Jr.’s voters ranked Peltola next than the senator.

The unusual setup stems from voting reforms adopted by Alaska in 2020, which instituted an open primary followed by a ranked-choice general election, as detailed by Reason. While critics have targeted the top-four primary model for allowing multiple candidates to crowd the ballot, Reason noted that the ranked-choice mechanism was specifically designed to blunt the impact of vote-splitting by redistributing preferences.

Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into allegations that Peltola’s allies recruited Sullivan Jr., which both deny. Meanwhile, a federal judge on November 1 dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that sought to block a Peltola win over voter confusion surrounding the two Sullivans, according to Newsweek.

The state still possesses approximately 51,000 early, absentee, and late-arriving mail ballots. Domestic mail ballots remain eligible to arrive through November 13, while overseas ballots have a deadline of November 18.

Projections based on scanned ballot rankings show that eliminating minor write-ins and redistributing Sullivan Jr.'s votes would narrow the contest. Newsweek’s estimates suggest that after accounting for second and third choices from third-place finisher Gerald Heikes, Senator Sullivan could edge ahead by roughly 333 votes.

Voters are also weighing Ballot Measure 2, which asks whether the state should repeal its current ranked-choice voting system and revert to traditional partisan primaries.