Declining Quality of Arizona Fall League Baseball and Cubs Prospects

A Wednesday night game at Sloan Park between the Mesa Solar Sox and the Salt River Rafters featured a 12-4 victory for the Rafters, but the score barely captured the struggle on the field, Bleed Cubbie Blue reported.

The contest was a grueling three-hour and three-minute affair despite being scheduled for only seven innings because it had no impact on the AFL playoffs. Pitchers struggled with command to an extreme degree, combining for 22 walks and throwing a total of 343 pitches.

This lack of precision highlights a broader shift in the quality of the league. While the Arizona Fall League once served as a final polishing stage for players on the cusp of the Major Leagues, recent years have seen a decline in the caliber of pitching prospects participating in the circuit.

A shift in prospect pedigree

The historical standard for the AFL was set by players who used the league as a springboard to immediate stardom. In 2016, Ian Happ earned AFL championship game MVP honors after hitting two home runs, and in 2021, Nelson Velázquez was named the league MVP, Bleed Cubbie Blue reported.

Recent observations from within the industry suggest the talent pool has drifted toward younger, less polished players. Chris Forbes, the Rockies director of player development, noted the changing trends during an interview with Bleed Cubbie Blue.

“The Fall League in probably a 10-year span has really changed. It’s not quite the pedigree it used to be. Where it used to be guys are going and next year they’re probably going to debut,” Forbes told Bleed Cubbie Blue.

Forbes added that while some players like reliever Fidel Ulloa have emerged as steady rewards for their performance, others still require significant developmental time. He specifically mentioned that the Rockies have a command plan for Konner Eaton and are working on a velocity-based plan for Stu Flesland III.

This sentiment was echoed by observers of the Diamondbacks organization. Jack Sommers told Bleed Cubbie Blue that the quality of the AFL has dropped in recent years, noting that the league has skewed toward younger, less developed position players with fewer high-end pitchers.

The statistical reality of Wednesday’s game illustrated these developmental growing pains. The Solar Sox pitchers, including Cubs prospect Jhon Cabral, issued 15 walks and struck out 13 batters. The Rafters sent 46 men to the plate, yet only 18 of them actually put the ball in play.

Jhon Cabral struggles with command and defensive lapses

For Cubs prospect Jhon Cabral, the game was a difficult outing. The 21-year-old, who signed a minor-league deal with Chicago after being released by the Marlins in June, faced five batters and failed to induce a single ball in play. Cabral struck out two and walked three on 30 pitches, throwing only 12 strikes.

While Cabral possesses significant velocity, his lack of command remains a hurdle. Without refinement, analysts suggest he may struggle to remain in a Major League organization long-term.

Defensive lapses also contributed to the lopsided result. The Rafters recorded 11 stolen bases, often running at catchers who appeared unprepared. Davis Diaz, a conversion catcher drafted by the A’s in the eighth round in 2024 out of Vanderbilt, struggled to contain the running game, occasionally failing to attempt a throw.

Despite the pitching woes, some Cubs prospects showed flashes of ability. Kade Snell went 1-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base, while outfielder Harrison Feinberg finished 2-for-3 with a sacrifice fly, Bleed Cubbie Blue reported.

The game took place under clear, 80-degree skies in Mesa, providing a brief reprieve for fans before the winter baseball hiatus. Whether the league’s shift toward younger, developmental players is a net positive or negative remains a point of debate among scouts and fans alike.