Idaho higher ed enrollment slows. Is it a one-off, or the start of a troubling trend?

Idaho’s Higher Ed Enrollment Decline: A Worrying Dip or a Passing Storm?

Idaho’s colleges and universities experienced their first enrollment drop since the pandemic, with a 0.7% decrease in fall student numbers.

The Context: A Small Dip in a Larger Landscape

The 2026 decline follows a steady rebound from the 5.2% plunge in 2020, when the pandemic upended education systems nationwide. Since then, Idaho’s enrollment had grown year‑over‑year, and student numbers at every college and university are ahead of where they were five years ago, even though five schools reported decreases this fall. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, the U.S. saw a 0.2% overall increase in enrollment, but 18‑year‑olds—often called “housing bubble babies”—saw a 0.7% decline. [idahoednews.org]

That demographic shift is rooted in the 2007–2008 housing crisis, which led to lower birth rates and, eventually, fewer college‑aged students. “It’s too early to point to a single cause, and our research team is continuing to examine the underlying trends,” State Board of Education Executive Director Jennifer White said in a statement to EdNews Wednesday.

Idaho higher ed enrollment slows. Is it a one-off, or the start of a troubling trend?

The Demographic Puzzle: Idaho’s Unique Position

While the West faces a projected 20% decline in high school graduates by 2041, Idaho stands out. A December 2024 report by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) predicts a 13% increase in Idaho’s high school graduates over the same period. This growth could position the state as a magnet for out‑of‑state students, but it also hinges on whether Idaho’s institutions can retain local talent.

“Our priority is a responsive, sustainable higher education system that keeps college affordable, helps students easily access and complete their education, and prepares them for good jobs here in Idaho.”

Boise State University, for example, saw in‑state first‑year enrollment grow by just 10 students this fall, while Idaho State University reported a 7.7% drop in applicants through Apply Idaho, the state’s centralized application portal.

Student enrollment drops at the University of Idaho

Fields of Growth: Where Enrollments Are Rising

Despite the overall decline, some programs are thriving. Boise State University’s electrical and computer engineering program has surged 69% since 2022, while nursing and construction management enrollments have grown by 18% and 45%, respectively. At the College of Western Idaho, career‑technical enrollment has jumped 71% over five years.

“Idaho needs nurses, engineers, construction managers, teachers, business leaders and entrepreneurs, and Boise State is preparing students to fill those roles,” President David Hahn said this week.

The University of Idaho’s law school saw a 10% enrollment increase, fueled by its largest first‑year class in history. As the State Board of Education revisits a three‑year plan for program expansions, the focus will be on healthcare, nuclear fields, and other growth industries. [idahoednews.org]

The Uncertain Path Ahead

The coming months will be crucial for Idaho’s colleges and universities. Lawmakers are expected to discuss higher education funding, while the State Board of Education will determine tuition rates for the next academic year. In‑state undergraduate tuition at Idaho’s public universities increased by 4.4%–4.7% this year, the biggest hike in three years. The state’s Opportunity Scholarship aims to offset these costs. Apply Idaho, the state’s application portal, has also been noted in discussions of recent enrollment declines. [idahoednews.org]

The Uncertain Path Ahead

As White noted, the goal is not just to maintain numbers but to build a system that “prepares students for good jobs here in Idaho.” Whether that vision aligns with Idaho’s shrinking demographics is uncertain.