Larry Persily Argues Trump Is Wrong About Alaska Senate Race Results

Larry Persily argues that President Donald Trump is ignoring basic mathematical and legal realities regarding the ongoing U.S. Senate race in Alaska, according to a column published in the Juneau Empire.

The contest remains undecided as the Alaska Division of Elections continues to process tens of thousands of absentee and early ballots. Under current state regulations, the counting process cannot conclude until the November 18 deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive. This delay is a functional requirement of the election cycle, yet the president has characterized the pause as a failure of the system.

As of Monday morning, the race shows a razor-thin margin between the two primary contenders. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola held a lead of 637 votes over Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, based on 215,912 counted ballots. The remaining uncounted votes represent many voters, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

The math behind the Alaska Senate race

The complexity of the tally stems from Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. If neither Peltola nor Sullivan secures more than 50% of the final vote count, the system triggers a redistribution process. This requires analyzing how voters selected the two other candidates—drywall installer Gerald Heikes and a retired teacher from Petersburg also named Dan Sullivan—as their second choices.

In a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, President Trump declared the race finished, stating, “Daniel Sullivan is leading substantially in the Alaska Senatorial Race.” He further asserted, “The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!”

Persily notes that these claims contradict the official data provided by election authorities. While the president possesses significant executive power, he lacks the legal authority to declare election winners. The current figures show the two minor candidates, Heikes and the Petersburg Sullivan, combined for 8,446 votes.

Candidate	Vote Count (as of Monday morning)
Mary Peltola	Leading by 637 votes
Dan Sullivan	Trailing by 637 votes
Gerald Heikes & Petersburg Sullivan	8,446 votes combined

The discrepancy between the president’s social media posts and the actual vote tallies has drawn sharp criticism from local figures. Persily suggests that the president’s insistence that the results be “immediate” ignores the statutory protections afforded to voters through the absentee ballot process.

FBI subpoenas Gerald Heikes during election investigation

The tension surrounding the election has moved beyond social media and into the legal sphere. Gerald Heikes, a conservative Republican from Palmer, reported that he was recently contacted by two FBI agents with a subpoena. According to Persily, the subpoena is part of the administration’s efforts to investigate or intervene in the Alaska election results.

Heikes, who characterized himself as a candidate running under divine instruction, expressed frustration with the president’s rhetoric. Heikes had previously been referred to as a “slug” in a social media post by the president, who also suggested that votes for Heikes and the Petersburg candidate should be “given” to Senator Sullivan.

“I can’t believe he called me a slug because he obviously has been an ignorant fool on this, and you can quote me on that,” Heikes told Juneau Empire. “He hasn’t done his background work or his homework, and he should go back home and do a little study.”

The debate highlights a fundamental friction between executive rhetoric and the mechanical certainty of election law. While the administration seeks to influence the perception of the race, the Division of Elections remains bound by the physical arrival of ballots and the mathematical requirements of ranked-choice counting.

The outcome of this race will likely hinge on how the tens of thousands of remaining absentee ballots are distributed. For Alaskans, the path to a winner remains tied to the November 18 deadline for mail-in arrivals.