Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan in Alaska Senate race as results take weeks

Alaska’s U.S. Senate race remains unresolved one day after the midterms, with Democrat Mary Peltola holding a lead of fewer than 700 votes over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Because the state uses ranked-choice voting and accepts mail ballots until November 18, a final result could take weeks, USNews.com reported.

Democrats have already secured control of both the House and Senate in Tuesday’s sweeping midterm victories, but Alaska’s contest carries outsized weight. The state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024 also maintains a stubborn independent streak, with bipartisan coalitions currently controlling both chambers of its state legislature.

Alaska Senate race: Mary Peltola, Dan Sullivan predict long wait for result in midterm elections

Peltola Holds a Razor-Thin Lead Over Sullivan

With ballots still being counted, Peltola, a centrist Democrat who served one term in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2022 to 2025, led Senator Dan S. Sullivan by fewer than 700 votes—48.2% to 47.9%—according to tallies compiled by Reuters and USA Today, which partnered to collect live election results. Sullivan, first elected in 2014, has represented the state for over a decade.

Two other candidates appeared on the general-election ballot but captured minimal support. Dan J. Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher with no party affiliation, won about 3,600 votes, or 1.7%, while Republican Gerry Heikes, a drywall contractor, secured 2.3%, fewer than 5,000 ballots.

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Why Officials Won’t Know the Winner Until After November 18

The margin is narrow enough that the race could turn on mail-in ballots and votes that must be flown from remote Alaskan communities. The state accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day until November 18, and because Alaska employs a ranked-choice voting system, election officials will not conduct the official ranked-choice tabulation before that date.

The system works like this: voters rank up to four candidates in order of preference. The top four vote-getters from the primary advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. To win outright, a candidate must receive more than 50% of first-place votes. If no candidate crosses that threshold, officials eliminate the last-place finisher and reallocate those ballots to each voter’s next choice. This process repeats until one candidate achieves a majority.

LATEST: Mary Peltola continues to lead incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan in pivotal Alaska Senate contest. Alaska Survey Research September 10-12, 2026 N=1,352 likely Alaska voters MOE=+/-3.0% Peltola hits 50% in Round 2 against her three opponents. 🧵1/9 pic.twitter.com/Ouc31kcGu1

— https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2102418467635011721

Because counting every first-round ballot takes time, and because the state must wait for all valid mail ballots to arrive, the elimination rounds cannot begin until after November 18.

Federal Probe Widens Over ‘Double Dan’ Controversy

Republicans had long alleged that Dan J. Sullivan, the retired teacher, was a spoiler candidate intended to confuse voters who meant to support the incumbent senator but could not distinguish between the two Dans. They tried to remove him from the ballot, arguing he was not a “good faith” candidate, but Alaska’s highest court rebuffed that argument.

Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan in Alaska Senate race as results take weeks — Photo: malaysia.news.yahoo.com

The New York Times reported last week that Peltola’s campaign helped recruit Dan J. Sullivan into the race—an allegation her campaign has flatly denied. The Justice Department has launched a criminal probe into these claims and expanded it this week, sending letters to more than 20 people notifying them they are subjects of the investigation, according to two people familiar with the probe who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Those notices are among more than 140 letters, subpoenas and notices sent to Democrats, campaigns, political action committees and phone companies. Targets include prominent voting rights lawyer Marc Elias, whose firm has represented Democrats including Peltola. President Trump declared Tuesday that Elias should be in jail; Elias has denied any wrongdoing. FBI agents also questioned donors to Dan J. Sullivan ahead of the election, stating they were investigating possible fraud.

Alaska Senate race still undecided, Peltola and Sullivan separated by slim margin

“The Department of Justice has been fighting tooth and nail to stop this process,” Attorney General Todd Blanche said Tuesday. “We’re not going to stop the fight even after today.”

Blanche also urged Alaska to preserve all ballots cast in the state and publicly cast doubt on the ranked-choice voting system itself. A spokesman for the state Department of Public Safety confirmed Tuesday that the probe remains ongoing.

What Happens If Peltola Wins

If Peltola ultimately prevails in the ranked-choice count, Republicans could attempt to appeal her victory and block her from being seated in the Senate. However, Democrats scored a sweeping victory in the US midterm elections that delivered them control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Sullivan, Peltola Project Confidence While Awaiting Results in Alaska US Senate Race | NTD

Ten of 11 supporters of Senator Sullivan interviewed by Reuters on Election Day said they did not believe the confusion over the two Dans would affect the race’s outcome. Still, the combination of a razor-thin margin, a complex voting system, and an aggressive federal investigation means Alaska’s Senate seat could remain in limbo for weeks.

For now, election officials continue the painstaking work of counting first-round ballots, with the decisive ranked-choice elimination rounds scheduled to begin only after the November 18 deadline passes.