Montgomery County Public Schools faces a looming surplus of empty seats in Germantown, where Spark M. Matsunaga Elementary School and Dr. Ronald E. McNair Elementary School are projected to operate well under capacity by the 2032-33 school year, according to a data breakdown published by Montgomery Perspective.
The district’s upcoming facility decisions hinge on enrollment projections and building conditions that vary across neighboring service areas. In Germantown, the math points to Matsunaga and McNair, two schools sitting side by side with projected utilization rates.
Germantown Utilization Projections
By the 2032-33 school year, Spark M. Matsunaga Elementary School is projected to reach 61 percent capacity, while Dr. Ronald E. McNair Elementary School will sit at 65 percent capacity, Montgomery Perspective reported. Matsunaga is projected to enroll 382 students against a capacity of 622, with a facility condition index ranking 78th out of 135 schools and a roof in poor condition following its last renovation/modernization in 2001.
McNair tells a different story regarding physical infrastructure. The school is projected to enroll 525 students with a capacity of 812, and its building condition ranks at 19th out of 135 schools after a 1990 renovation/modernization.
The Great Seneca Creek Factor
Just to the east, Great Seneca Creek Elementary School adds another layer to the local capacity puzzle. The school is projected to operate at 70 percent capacity by 2032-33, with 408 students enrolled against a capacity of 582, following a 2006 renovation/modernization and a facility condition ranking of 54th out of 135 schools.

The excess capacity of the other two schools, each of which has superior facility condition ratings to Matsunaga, is projected to be 461.
Feeder Patterns and Next Steps
All three elementary facilities feed into Kingsview Middle School and Northwest High School. However, Matsunaga complicates potential action in this area by also sending some students to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Middle School and Seneca Valley High School.
Any consolidation or closure proposal in this cluster would require Montgomery County Public Schools to address these split feeder patterns before moving forward. Next in the countywide review series is Gaithersburg.