Hochul Leads Blakeman 50-41% in New Siena Poll

Governor Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman 50% to 41% in a new Siena poll of likely New York State voters released today, as the race for governor tightens with Election Day less than six weeks away.

Siena Poll Puts Incumbent at 50% While Blakeman Closes Gap

Statewide polling shows Governor Kathy Hochul leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 50% to 41%, little changed from 49% to 39% in August, according to the new Siena Poll. Hochul’s lead declined 1 point from August, but this was the first time she hit the 50% mark in a Siena survey of likely voters from around the state—a threshold that is often key for an incumbent’s chances. In other statewide races, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger, Saritha Komatireddy, 52% to 39%, down a little from 54% to 36% last month, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 56% to 33%, virtually the same as August’s 55% to 32%.

Blakeman is closer to pulling off an upset of Hochul than GOP challenger Lee Zeldin was during the same time period in 2022, a new Siena University survey reveals. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg stated: At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54%-37%, before going on to win by six points. Last month, Hochul led Blakeman 49% to 39%, so Blakeman picked up financial and voter ground but still has significant ground to make up. A separate survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for the Blakeman campaign, based on interviews with 800 likely voters from August 27 to 31, found Republican Bruce Blakeman just 4.6 percentage points behind Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul, 49.6% to 45.7%, with 4.7% of likely voters undecided.

The nail-bitingly close results reflect growing dissatisfaction with Hochul’s ability to lead the Empire State, according to the pollsters who conducted the survey. More than half of voters (55%) don’t have a favorable view of the governor, who is seeking a second term. The majority of voters (56%) believe that it’s time to give someone else a chance to do better, while only 38% say Kathy Hochul has performed well. Only 48% of voters view her favorably and 48% unfavorably, while her job approval rating is also under 50%—48% gave a thumbs up and 47% disapproved as Hochul seeks re-election to a second, four-year term.

Regional Divides and Voter Perceptions Across New York

Newsday and Siena University polls released Wednesday show that while Hochul leads Blakeman 50% to 41% statewide, Blakeman leads by 8 points among Long Island voters. In the tally of just Long Island residents, Blakeman leads Hochul 51% to 43%. While each candidate has strong support from party members, Blakeman has a narrow lead among independent voters: 44% to 39%.

Hochul Leads Blakeman 50-41% in New Siena Poll — Photo: Newsday

While only half of likely voters say they are supporting Hochul, two-thirds of likely voters think Hochul will win, including 37% of Republicans. A new Siena poll shows that half of likely voters believe Kathy Hochul will win the governor’s race, while 41% are siding with Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with the margin increasing by a percentage point for both candidates from August.

The Proxy Battle Over National Endorsements and Policy Issues

As for endorsements, voters say 51% to 30% that President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman will be a negative for his campaign, and by a 50% to 30% margin, they say Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul is positive for her campaign. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman recently unveiled his Protect the New York Dream agenda, amping up his fight to end socialist policies in the state. The initiative aims to protect homeowners, merit-based education, private property rights, and good paying jobs. Blakeman is closing in on incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul, trailing her by 9 points in the latest Siena University poll, which Blakeman addressed during media appearances, maintaining: Well, first of all, it's not a 10-point gap. We were in the margin of error. Uh, we confirmed that with our own [poll].

Looking Toward the November 3 General Election

Blakeman, meanwhile, has his own challenge—nearly one-third of voters don’t know him or have no opinion with the election just 41 days away. Blakeman issued the following response to the poll on Wednesday: “All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul’s downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half. And let’s remember: at this point in the 2022 race, a Siena poll had Lee Zeldin trailing Kathy Hochul by 17 points. Today, our race is in single digits, with one-third of New Yorkers still needing to learn more about me.”

Hochul leads Blakeman 49-39% in New York governor race: Siena Poll

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman was joined by state Assemblyman Michael Novakhov, Norman Ramsey, Melvin Rivera, and State Senator Steve Chan during a press conference in Brooklyn on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026, while New York Governor Kathy Hochul attended a ribbon-cutting of a Comunilife residence at 2444 Tiebout Avenue in The Bronx on Thursday, Sept. 3, 2026, as both campaigns march toward the November 3 election. Additional policy items measured in the polling include voters opposing renaming Lake Ontario 74-19%, and opposing large data centers in their area of the state 63-25%.