Alaska's Senate Race in Statistical Deadlock

Alaska’s election night is leaving voters and analysts in a state of suspended animation. According to reporting from Alaska Public Media, the state is currently navigating a complex web of uncounted ballots and ranked-choice tabulation that could fundamentally alter its representation in Washington and Juneau.

As the dust settles on the 2026 midterms, Alaska is presenting a unique political profile: a state that is feeling the “ripple” of a national Democratic surge, yet remains deeply divided on the very mechanics of its democracy. With tens of thousands of ballots still in play, the upcoming weeks will determine whether Alaska maintains its traditional Republican leanings or undergoes a significant structural shift.

The Senate race enters a high-stakes waiting game

The battle for the U.S. Senate is currently a statistical deadlock. As of Wednesday, Democrat Mary Peltola held a narrow lead of a few hundred votes over Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. However, this margin is precarious. Because no candidate has cleared the 50% threshold, the state must move to the next phase of its electoral process: the tabulation of ranked-choice votes, currently scheduled for Nov. 18.

Alaska Senate race: Mary Peltola, Dan Sullivan predict long wait for result in midterm elections

Analysts are currently dissecting the Cast Vote Record—the granular, ballot-level data released by the Division of Elections—to predict how the remaining absentee, early, and rural votes might break. Forrest Nabors, a professor at the University of Alaska Anchorage, noted a specific mathematical complication regarding the ballot names.

“If you like peace and you don't like partisan drama, that's not a good sign,” Nabors said. “Because that could then give the pretext to the executive branch in our state government to, you know, lodge a protest (and) potentially withhold certification.”

The Peltola campaign has denied allegations of involvement in any effort to confuse voters, a controversy stemming from a New York Times investigation into same-name candidates. Meanwhile, the Sullivan campaign has circulated memos projecting a victory, banking on the idea that late-counted early votes will swing the race back toward the Republican incumbent.

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A potential shift in the Governor’s mansion

For the first time since Tony Knowles secured a second term in 1998, Alaska appears poised to elect a Democratic governor. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins currently holds 49% of the first-choice votes.

If Kreiss-Tomkins reaches the 50% plus one vote mark, the race concludes immediately. Even if he falls short, the math for the Republican party is daunting. An analysis of the raw vote data suggests that Republican voters are not ranking their preferred candidates in a way that would allow a GOP challenger to overtake the Democrat through ranked-choice redistribution. For example, of the nearly 16,000 voters who chose fourth-place Republican Treg Taylor as their first preference, about 60% ranked another Republican second and about 5% ranked Kreiss-Tomkins second.

Alaska's Senate Race in Statistical Deadlock

Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson, who got roughly 29% of the first-choice vote, remains hopeful despite the data. On social media, she urged her supporters to “remain steadfast in prayer” as the count continues.

Republican leads House race

In the U.S. House race, Republican Nick Begich III seems to be on track to win a second term. In the U.S. House race, the only candidate running as a Democrat was Eric Hafner. Instead, voters saw Eric Hafner, an inmate serving 20 years in a federal prison in New York for terroristic threatening, receive over 15,000 votes—a figure some suggest reflects party affiliation or a protest vote. Independent Bill Hill, who had the endorsement of the Alaska Democratic Party, trails Begich, who has 49.5% of the vote to Hill’s 40.3%.

BREAKING: Dan Sullivan Speaks To Supporters As Alaska Results Show Very Close Race With Mary Peltola

Beyond candidates, Alaskans are voting on the rules of the game itself. The results show a state split on electoral reform:

Ballot Measure 2: This attempt to repeal the current system is narrowly failing, with “No” votes leading at 52%.
Ballot Measure 3: A measure specifying that only U.S. citizens may vote in Alaska is seeing massive support, currently tracking at approximately 70%.

If Measure 2 fails, the unique ranked-choice and open primary system will remain the standard for the state’s future elections.