Arkansas Republicans hold advantage in 2024 election forecasts

Arkansas voters head into the final stretch of the election cycle with consensus forecasts pointing to a deeply entrenched Republican advantage across federal, statewide, and legislative offices.

Tom Cotton Seeks Third Term Against Hallie Shoffner

In the U.S. Senate contest, Republican Sen. Tom Cotton is running for a third term. His Democratic challenger is Hallie Shoffner, a farmer and business owner. Cotton enters the final days of the campaign heavily favored in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 2008.

Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders seeks a second term. She faces Democrat Fred Love, a former state legislator. Sanders remains heavily favored in a state where Republicans dominate federal and statewide elections.

Congressional Stability and Legislative Control

Arkansas has four congressional districts, all held by Republicans. In 2024, Districts 1, 3, and 4 were all decided by margins of 30% or more, rendering them uncompetitive. District 2, encompassing Little Rock and surrounding areas was also not close in 2024. French Hill won a 6th term by 18%. Given the environment, some forecasters have moved this seat from ‘Safe’ to ‘Likely’. However, Democrats would have to have an exceptionally good night to win here.

Down-ballot, the partisan balance in the state legislature remains heavily skewed. Republicans hold a 27-6 partisan advantage in the 35-member Arkansas Senate. 17 seats are on the ballot for a four-year term. There are two vacancies to be filled by special election. These seats are next up for a full term in 2028. Voters will decide the District 1 special alongside the general election, whereas the contest for District 18 is scheduled for early January.

Republicans hold an 79-20 advantage over Democrats in the Arkansas House of Representatives. There is one vacancy. All 100 seats will be up for a two-year term this year. A special election will be held to fill the vacant District 8 seat, and the victor will hold office until the new House officially convenes.