Can Independent Candidates Win in Idaho After Todd Achilles' Senate Run?

Independent challenger Todd Achilles fell short in his bid to unseat Republican U.S. Senator Jim Risch on November 3, 2026, marking a decisive victory for the incumbent in a state where the GOP maintains a massive structural advantage.

The race, which drew national attention as a test case for third-party viability in deep-red territory, concluded with Risch securing 56.6% of the vote. Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator who ran as an independent, finished with 33.57% in the four-way contest, according to results reported by the Idaho Capital Sun.

While the outcome preserved Risch’s hold on the seat, it remains his closest general election margin since his initial 2008 victory, when he took 57.7% of the vote against Democrat Larry LaRocco.

The stakes of the 2026 cycle were defined by the stark imbalance in Idaho’s political landscape. Nearly 62% of the state’s voters are registered Republicans, while just 12% are registered Democrats, with over 24% of the electorate remaining unaffiliated, the Idaho Capital Sun reported using data from the Idaho secretary of state’s office. This dominance creates a high barrier for any challenger, regardless of the campaign’s intensity or financial backing.

Can Independent Candidates Win in Idaho After Todd Achilles' Senate Run? — Photo: kpvi.com

“If a political party is not meeting those needs, then there’s not typically going to be a lot of crossover to the other side. Usually, people will just kind of sit out, said Edward Greer, an Idaho State University political scientist who researches political psychology and behavior.”

Achilles’ campaign managed to raise nearly $2 million, according to Federal Election Commission data, a sum that outpaced recent Democratic challengers. Even so, he remained significantly outspent by Risch, whose campaign surpassed $5 million as of mid-October, FEC filings show. Despite the financial gap, Achilles pointed to the speed of his campaign’s growth as evidence of a shifting appetite for alternatives.

“We went from zero to 33% in 18 months,” Achilles told the Idaho Capital Sun the day after the election. “We got a lot of people excited. We had hundreds of meetings and town halls and events across the state.” While he has not committed to a future run, he indicated he intends to remain active in the political sphere.

The strategy behind the independent push faced friction within the state's Democratic establishment. In August, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race after receiving a letter from Ada County Democratic leaders who argued that Achilles stood a better chance of unseating Risch.

Jared DeLoof, chair of the Ada County Democrats, told the Idaho Capital Sun that he would likely send the same letter again today, citing a lack of fundraising momentum behind the original Democratic bid. However, he remains skeptical that an independent path is the solution for the party’s long-term goals.

“This was, I really think, an experiment year, given the stakes of what’s going on in the country,” DeLoof said. “My takeaway from this is that in deep red places like Idaho, we have to continue to do the work within the Democratic Party to build a party that can win here.”

This sentiment is echoed by Idaho Democratic Party Chair Lauren Necochea, who suggested to the New York Times that independent efforts would likely fade as the party focuses on holding Republican officials accountable.

The difficulty of the task is not lost on political observers. Robert Jones, a partner at the Boise-based GS Strategy Group, said that the Republican advantage in Idaho is so deeply embedded that structural change is a long-term prospect rather than an immediate possibility.

“Those things take a long time to change,” Jones told the Idaho Capital Sun. “It doesn’t mean there won’t be a candidate or a single race where something happens that’s anomalous and somebody can get elected. But structural change, where Democrats are competitive up and down the statewide ballot, is a fair ways off.”

While the 2026 election saw some national trends favor Democrats, Idaho’s results reflected a consistent pattern of voters sticking with their established party representatives. Whether an independent can bridge the gap between a disillusioned electorate and the entrenched party infrastructure is still undecided.

As Greer noted, the potential exists for independent candidates to capture voters who refuse to align with either major party, but the tactical challenge of keeping the Democratic brand at arm’s length while courting its voters remains a steep climb.

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