Governor Mike Dunleavy Rejects Fears of U.S. Military Invasion of Canada

Alaskan Governor Mike Dunleavy described the notion of a United States military invasion of Canada as completely shocking to average Americans, reacting in Banff, Alberta, to recent comments by Prime Minister Mark Carney regarding extreme tail risks amid an escalating trade dispute between the two nations.

Alaska’s Republican Governor, Michael Dunleavy, expressed deep astonishment after learning that Canadian leadership had formally weighed the prospect of a U.S.-led military incursion. Speaking to a business audience in Banff, Alberta, the governor dismissed the concept entirely while addressing bilateral tensions that have strained ties between Ottawa and Washington.

The discussion follows remarks made by Prime Minister Mark Carney to The New York Times, where he acknowledged carefully examining the possibility of military action after being pressed on threats from President Donald Trump regarding Canada potentially becoming a 51st state. Carney characterized the probability of such an event as an extreme tail risk, utilizing a financial term for a rare, highly damaging occurrence that people typically dismiss.

Governor Dunleavy Rejects Invasion Fears in Banff Address

Governor Dunleavy sought to reassure his Canadian audience that everyday citizens south of the border view their northern neighbors as family rather than adversaries. Noting that the 1995 film Canadian Bacon marked the last time an American ever seriously pondered the notion of invading Canada, the governor offered a blunt assessment of the odds.

“Pennsylvania has a better chance of being invaded by West Virginia. I just want to make sure you guys understand that. There’s zero chance.”

Gov. Mike Dunleavy, via The Globe and Mail

The governor emphasized that the harsh rhetoric originating from the White House does not reflect mainstream American sentiment. The President, who told journalists in 2025 that he would be willing to use economic force to coax Canada into a political union, frequently labeled the country the 51st state and referred to Carney as its governor.

Despite those high-level disputes, Dunleavy stressed that the average American’s view of Canadians has never changed, noting the deep cross-border ties between Alaska and Yukon, as well as shared mutual assistance during natural disasters like forest fires and avalanches.

Economic Warfare and Public Anxiety

The diplomatic friction stems heavily from an ongoing trade conflict. Prime Minister Carney characterized aggressive U.S. tariffs—designed to push steel, aluminum, and auto operations back across the border—as a form of economic warfare. In August, following the collapse of trade negotiations, Carney bluntly declared that You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked, pointing to what he described as a bad deal demanding too much while offering too little.

That trade hostility has fostered genuine anxiety among the Canadian public. Polling data indicates that 60 per cent of surveyed Canadians believe the latest American tariffs were implemented out of spite to harm the Canadian economy, whereas only 30 per cent consider them intended to benefit the United States.

Former U.S. diplomat Scotty Greenwood, founding partner at Ottawa Street Strategy and former CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, observed that leaders on both sides are talking past each other. However, Greenwood welcomed Dunleavy’s remarks as a positive signal that presidential rhetoric lacks backing even among staunch allies.

National Security Planning and Military Modelling

While the prospect of an actual invasion remains far-fetched to civilian populations, national security experts note that formal contingency planning is standard practice for armed forces. Jody Thomas, who served as national-security and intelligence adviser under Justin Trudeau’s government, defended the government’s military planning.

Governor Mike Dunleavy Rejects Fears of U.S. Military Invasion of Canada — Photo: The Globe and Mail

“Canada has to look at every scenario – that’s what you expect your armed forces planners to do, and your national-security planners. You look at every potential.”

Jody Thomas, former national-security and intelligence adviser, via The Globe and Mail

Early this year, reporting revealed through senior government sources that the Canadian Armed Forces had indeed modeled a hypothetical U.S. invasion and evaluated potential defensive tactics. Thomas maintained that while military planners must evaluate all risks, the constant stream of hostile economic policy and rhetoric from Washington inherently weakens Canada, leaving citizens with valid reasons for concern.