Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Leads Alaska Governor Race, Poised to Become First Democratic Governor in 25 Years

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Leads Alaska Governor Race, Poised to Become First Democratic Governor in 25 Years

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Alaska is on the verge of electing its first Democratic governor in nearly a quarter-century. As of Wednesday morning, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins held 49% of first-choice votes in the race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, according to preliminary results from the Alaska Division of Elections, with 393 of 400 precincts reporting. If he maintains his lead as thousands of remaining early and absentee ballots are counted, Kreiss-Tomkins would break a streak dating back to Tony Knowles, who left office in 2002.

The outcome carries weight beyond party control. The next governor will inherit a state grappling with structural budget deficits, a troubled ferry system, and public schools that have stagnated under eight years of Republican leadership. Alaska’s unique ranked-choice voting system means the race is not yet decided: Kreiss-Tomkins needs more than 50% of first-preference votes to win outright, and with three Republicans splitting the opposition vote, the final result could hinge on how voters ranked their second and third choices.

A Field of Four After a Crowded Primary

The path to November’s general election began in August, when 17 candidates—12 Republicans, two Democrats, and three independents—competed in a single primary. The top four vote-getters advanced: Kreiss-Tomkins, businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, and former Attorney General Treg Taylor. The Democratic field consolidated behind Kreiss-Tomkins when former state Sen. Tom Begich withdrew after the primary, a move that also allowed Taylor to enter the final four after Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom initially disqualified him for a late financial disclosure, then reversed her decision days later.

Behind the Ballot: Alaska Governor's Race — Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

As of Tuesday night’s update, Wilson trailed with 29.1%, followed by Bronson at 14.1% and Taylor at 7.4%, according to the Alaska Beacon. The ADN reported slightly different early figures—Wilson at 29.4% and Kreiss-Tomkins at 48.8%—reflecting the fluid nature of the count as more ballots were processed. Wilson, who received an endorsement from President Donald Trump at an October rally in Wasilla, faced scrutiny over lawsuits involving unpaid business and personal debts. Bronson had been voted out of office after a single term as Anchorage mayor marked by dysfunction, while Taylor’s brief removal from the ballot highlighted the procedural turbulence that marked the Republican side of the race.

Ranked Choice Could Still Reshape the Outcome

Alaska’s electoral system requires a candidate to secure a majority of first-choice votes to win immediately. If Kreiss-Tomkins falls short of 50%, the candidate with the fewest votes—likely Taylor—would be eliminated, and those voters’ second choices would be redistributed. The process would continue until only two candidates remain. The ADN noted that if enough Taylor and Bronson voters ranked Wilson as their second choice, she could overtake Kreiss-Tomkins in the final tabulation.

Election officials will continue counting ballots until Nov. 18, with a target certification date of Nov. 25. Thousands of early and absentee votes remain uncounted, leaving the race technically undecided despite Kreiss-Tomkins’ comfortable lead.

Contrasting Visions for the State

Kreiss-Tomkins, a 37-year-old former lawmaker from Sitka who spent a decade representing Southeast Alaska in the Legislature, campaigned on a platform of pragmatic governance. He has proposed imposing new taxes on oil and gas companies to close the state’s structural deficit, restoring the ferry system, and making public education “excellent everywhere.” Unlike his Republican opponents, he has pledged to appoint Republicans to his cabinet and work across partisan lines, including with the Trump administration.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins enters The Broken Blender for an election night party in downtown
Photo: adn.com

His campaign held a financial advantage, having raised more than his three opponents combined, and he traveled to rural villages rarely visited by statewide candidates, while the Republicans focused on GOP strongholds in the Matanuska-Susitna region, the Kenai Peninsula, and Fairbanks. Speaking to supporters at a packed election night party in downtown Anchorage, Kreiss-Tomkins said his top takeaway from 10 months of campaigning was “how difficult it is for many Alaskans to get by.”

Wilson’s supporters, meanwhile, emphasized her commitment to Biblical values and opposition to new taxes, with some voters citing the need to protect Permanent Fund dividend payments. One Republican voter in Anchorage told the Alaska Beacon that while he was uncertain about Kreiss-Tomkins, Trump’s endorsement of Wilson “definitely gained a little bit of traction.”

Meet Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Our Terrific Candidate For Governor Of Alaska

What Happens Next

The final count will proceed through Nov. 18, with results targeted for certification on Nov. 25. If Kreiss-Tomkins crosses the 50% threshold, he will become the first Democrat to hold the governor’s office since Knowles left office in 2002. If ranked-choice tabulation is required, the outcome will depend on how the eliminated candidates’ supporters ranked the remaining contenders—a scenario that could extend the uncertainty for weeks.

For now, the 24-year wait for Democratic leadership appears close to ending, though the final ballots have yet to speak.

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