Michigan Senate race: El-Sayed leads Rogers in recent polling

The race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters has officially hit a boiling point in the final stretch before the midterm elections, marked by fierce new tensions, controversial remarks, and a flurry of tightening poll numbers.

New Flashpoints and Campaign Clashes

As voters prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, fresh controversies have injected volatile energy into the contest. NBC News reported that recent developments include contentious remarks from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. alongside a growing public backlash directed at a newly released anti-Israel campaign advertisement.

Michigan Senate race leans Democrat, with El-Sayed holding 2% edge over Rogers: DDHQ poll

Polling the Final Weeks

While the rhetorical temperature rises, the underlying numbers show a competitive battle unfolding across the state. According to polling data, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has held an advantage over Republican opponent Mike Rogers in the late-summer and early-fall surveys, though several polls indicate the race remains within the margin of error.

A Marist poll conducted between September 24 and September 27 showed El-Sayed capturing 51 percent of registered voters compared to 44 percent for Rogers. Meanwhile, a Fox News survey conducted from September 24 to September 28 placed El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 49 percent among likely voters, operating within a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for registered voters and 3 percentage points for likely voters.

Across broader tracking, the Real Clear Politics polling average heading into the final stretch gave El-Sayed a 3.4 percentage point lead based on surveys completed through September 28. Of the 12 September polls tracked in that average, El-Sayed led in 11, while a co/efficient poll conducted between September 21 and September 23 recorded a tie.

The Road to November 3

Rogers has sought to close the gap as both campaigns make their final arguments of the 2026 midterm cycle. With the final weekend of campaigning approaching, neither side has room for error as Michigan voters decide who will claim the open Senate seat.