New Siena Poll Shows Governor Hochul Widening Lead Over Blakeman

Hochul Widens Lead Over Blakeman to 14 Points as New York Voters Shift Dynamics

Governor Kathy Hochul has pulled ahead of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, commanding a 54% to 40% advantage among likely New York State voters, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released on Wednesday. The new numbers show a distinct expansion from September, when Hochul held a narrower 50% to 41% edge. With just one week remaining before Election Day, the race highlights a stark divergence between statewide voter sentiment and the traditional uphill battle facing Republican challengers in a heavily Democratic electorate.

For the first time since taking office five years ago, a majority of New York voters view Hochul favorably. The Siena poll reveals a 51% to 45% favorable split for the incumbent governor. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Hochul’s standing has crossed a crucial threshold in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one.

Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing, Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.

The Demographics and Geography of the Race

To mount a viable statewide challenge, Republican candidates must historically rack up decisive margins upstate and in the downstate suburbs to counterbalance the heavy Democratic turnout concentrated in New York City. Yet, the latest cross-tabs show Blakeman and Hochul running virtually even both upstate and in the suburbs. Furthermore, Hochul holds an 11-point advantage among independent voters.

New NY gov race poll has Hochul further ahead of Blakeman

The gender and demographic breakdowns further illustrate the current political landscape. Hochul leads among female voters by 23 points and maintains a six-point edge among men. While white voters remain closely divided, the governor commands strong support among minority voters, leading Latinos by better than two to one and securing 81-16% support among Black voters.

Blakeman has sought to counter these figures by emphasizing economic proposals. In a statement, Blakeman noted that our race is in single digits, with one-third of New Yorkers still needing to learn more about me, while pointing to his plans to cut income taxes and slash electric bills. Even so, the Siena poll indicates that two-thirds of likely voters—including 40% of Republicans—believe Hochul will ultimately win the election.

Siena poll | 10/19-10/22 LVNew York Governor 2026🟦Kathy Hochul 54% (incumbent)🟥Bruce Blakeman 40%Link to poll: https://t.co/bATSAFLYmP pic.twitter.com/IYurbsbq2R

— https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2115382365849579861

Incumbents Lead in Statewide Races

Beyond the gubernatorial contest, New York’s other major statewide incumbents enjoy comfortable double-digit cushions. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican challenger Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%, building on a 56% to 33% margin from September. DiNapoli has a long history of outpacing other statewide candidates, having drawn more votes than any other candidate in New York during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles.

On the federal level, the generic congressional ballot reflects a widening gap. New York voters favor an unnamed Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican by a 54% to 39% margin, up from 51% to 40% in September. Independents share this preference by a 50% to 36% margin.

New Siena Poll Shows Governor Hochul Widening Lead Over Blakeman — Photo: timesunion.com

Trump Endorsement Weighs on Blakeman Campaign

National politics continues to cast a long shadow over New York’s local campaigns. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating stands at 37-62%. According to the Siena poll, 48% of voters view Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman as a negative for the challenger’s campaign, while 45% view Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul as a positive asset.

The Siena poll surveyed 807 likely New York voters between October 19 and October 22, 2026, utilizing a dual-frame landline and cell phone methodology.