Siena Poll: GOP Leads in Florida and South Carolina, DFL in Minnesota

As battles wage across the map for control of the U.S. Senate, South Carolina has jumped to center stage in the closing weeks of the 2026 midterm cycle. Newly appointed Darline Graham finds herself locked in a tight toss-up race against Democrat Annie Andrews, leading by less than one point, according to a poll released on October 28, 2026, by the Siena Research Institute.

The survey of likely voters in Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina captures a shifting political map where marquee matchups reveal vastly different dynamics across state lines. While South Carolina is running on a knife-edge, other races surveyed by the Siena Research Institute show commanding leads that could reshape the legislative balance in Washington.

“As the battles wage across the map for control of the U.S. Senate, South Carolina now jumps to centerstage,” said SRI’s Executive Director, Don Levy. “Republican Darline Graham, recently appointed to the senate, is locked in a toss-up race with Democrat Annie Andrews as Graham leads by less than one point.”

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The Florida and Minnesota Breakdowns

Further south, the Florida electorate displays a distinct Republican advantage at the top of the ticket. In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican Ashley Moody holds a 50% to 44% lead over Democrat Angie Nixon. Meanwhile, the gubernatorial contest in the Sunshine State shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 48% to 44%.

Contrasting sharply with the competitive margins in the Southeast, Minnesota voters are leaning heavily toward the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. In the race for U.S. Senate, Peggy Flanagan commands a 54% to 40% lead over Republican Michele Tafoya. The Minnesota gubernatorial race widens the gap further, with Amy Klobuchar holding 56% of the vote compared to 38% for Republican challenger Lisa Demuth.

South Carolina’s Toss-Up Stakes

South Carolina’s dead-heat senate race between Graham and Andrews remains the primary volatility point for national strategists tracking the upper chamber. Down-ballot in the Palmetto State, the gubernatorial race tilts toward the incumbent party, with Republican Alan Wilson leading Democrat Jermaine Johnson 51% to 44%.

Voters head to the polls as these final numbers crystallize the stakes for the remaining days of the cycle. Whether the tight margins in South Carolina break for the appointed incumbent or her Democratic challenger remains the central question heading into November.