South Carolina Senate Race: Polls Show Dead Heat Between Graham and Andrews

A U.S. Senate race in South Carolina that was once considered a safe Republican hold has tightened into a dead heat just days before the November 3 midterm election. Despite the state’s deep-red reputation, recent polling shows Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews gaining significant momentum against Senator Darline Graham, prompting the GOP to deploy President Donald Trump to the state for the third time since August to shore up support.

The stakes are high for both parties as they fight for control of the Senate. While Republicans initially expected a “red wave” in the Palmetto State, they are now spending aggressively to protect a seat that is no longer a certainty, WBTV reported. As of mid-October, the GOP has poured $20 million into this single race to push Senator Graham over the finish line.

Annie Andrews Leads in Polls Among Women and Youth

The current volatility is anchored in a recent poll from The New York Times and Siena College published on October 28. The data reveals a startling shift in voter sentiment: if the election were held today, 47% of respondents say they would lean Democrat, while 35% lean Republican, with 18% remaining undecided.

Graham, Andrews tied in South Carolina Senate race, new poll shows

This shift is driven largely by a divide in age and gender. Dr. Annie Andrews has established a commanding lead among women and younger voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Conversely, Senator Graham maintains a 15% lead with male voters. Geographically, Andrews is strongest in Charleston—where her campaign is based—and southeast South Carolina, while Graham holds the Upstate and the Rock Hill region.

The poll also highlights a potential friction point for the GOP. Despite the heavy involvement of the president, 46% of those polled strongly disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of his duties as commander in chief. This suggests that the very figure the GOP is relying on to save the seat may be a polarizing force among a critical slice of the electorate.

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Ralph Norman Write-In Campaign Risks Fracturing Republican Base

While the top-line numbers are worrying for the GOP, there is a secondary threat lurking in the form of a grassroots write-in campaign. Congressman Ralph Norman is drawing support from conservative voters, creating a risk of a fractured Republican base. This internal division has turned the race into one of the most closely watched contests in the country.

“The president is coming to Ralph Norman territory to rally people around Darline Graham and to say that if you vote for Ralph Norman you are actually voting for Annie Andrews,” said Brent Nelsen, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University.

The logic is simple: in a race this tight, every single vote counts. If a small percentage of the GOP base opts for a write-in candidate rather than the official nominee, they may inadvertently hand the victory to Dr. Andrews. Kirk Randazzo, a USC Political Science professor, noted that even a couple of percentage points shifting toward Norman could be the deciding factor in a toss-up race.

South Carolina Senate Race: Polls Show Dead Heat Between Graham and Andrews — Photo: live5news.com

Trump Visits Rock Hill to Ignite MAGA Voters

The battle now comes down to who actually shows up. Early voting numbers have been strong, a trend that political analysts say historically favors Democratic candidates. The Republican strategy relies on a surge of MAGA voters on Election Day to offset those early gains.

To ignite that base, President Trump is scheduled to speak at 12:30 p.m. on Thursday, October 29, at the Rock Hill Sports and Event Center. This visit marks his second trip to the state in just nine days. The location is strategic; Rock Hill sits within Ralph Norman’s home congressional district, making it the venue to convince disgruntled conservatives to consolidate their support behind Senator Graham.

South Carolina poll shows Graham, Andrews neck and neck before Election Day

The question remains whether the MAGA base possesses the enthusiasm to turn out when Trump himself is not the name on the ballot. Without that surge, the “blue wave” the Democrats are hoping for could become a reality in a state where it was previously unthinkable.

Voter Group/Metric	Leaning/Strength	Primary Candidate Support
Young Voters (18-29)	Strong Lead	Dr. Annie Andrews
Female Voters	Strong Lead	Dr. Annie Andrews
Male Voters	15% Lead	Sen. Darline Graham
Upstate/Rock Hill	Stronghold	Sen. Darline Graham
Charleston/SE SC	Stronghold	Dr. Annie Andrews

As the clock ticks toward November 3, the race has evolved from a routine hold into a high-stakes gamble. The GOP is betting $20 million and the prestige of a presidential visit to stop a momentum shift that has left the state’s political map unrecognizable.