President Donald Trump’s strategy to make the 2026 midterm elections a referendum on himself backfired on Kansas Republicans, leading to historic Democratic wins and the shattering of a nearly century-long GOP winning streak in a U.S. Senate race.
A Trump Referendum Backfires in Kansas
Trump explicitly tied his own political fate to the Kansas Republican candidates during a Nov. 1 rally in Salina. I really want you to pretend I’m on the ballot,
he told supporters, adding that in a sense, I am on the ballot.
The former president, who held two rallies in the state with Vice President JD Vance, argued that his presence was necessary for Republican success, claiming, Every time I was on the ballot, we won with Congress, we won Senate, won everything.
Republican officials had hoped this focus would boost MAGA turnout, but the strategy had the opposite effect.
Historic Democratic Victories
The election resulted in what a political science professor called the most shocking election night in Kansas history.
Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton defeated incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, ending the GOP’s nearly century-long winning streak in U.S. Senate races in Kansas. The race for governor between Republican Ty Masterson and Democrat Cindy Holscher was too close to call on election night; a Holscher victory would mark the first time a party has won three straight gubernatorial races since the state moved to four-year terms in 1974. The race for attorney general between Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Chris Mann was also too close to call. Beatty noted that it seemed inconceivable
for Democrats to win all three of those major statewide races. In the state Legislature, Democrats broke the 16-year Republican supermajority in the Kansas House.
Why the Strategy Failed
Washburn University political science professor Bob Beatty analyzed the failed strategy, stating that in this case, it clearly did not work. In fact, it completely backfired — and maybe that’s a phenomenon of Trump.
He suggested that Trump and Vance’s rhetoric against Kansas Democrats, including Governor Laura Kelly, may have alienated voters. I don’t think that helped, coming to Kansas and calling Kansas Democrats a bunch of lunatics, which is what he did,
Beatty said. But that’s Trump’s brand. You live by it, and you die by it. In this case, it really hurt Kobach, Marshall and Masterson.
Kansas Republican Party Chair Danedri Herbert had predicted that Trump would boost turnout, but the results did not bear out that expectation. Beatty described the Democrats’ gains as a once-in-lifetime event
and an opportunity
for the party, though its ultimate success remains unknown.
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