Under 46.5: Why Texas and LSU Should Struggle to Score in Death Valley

Texas enters Saturday night with four wins against the initial College Football Playoff top 25, a figure that exceeds any other team in the country, according to ESPN.

The Longhorns travel to Death Valley to face No. 14 LSU, a matchup that carries massive implications for both programs’ postseason trajectories. While Texas seeks to solidify its standing, LSU is fighting to maintain its relevance in the rankings after a difficult stretch of play.

The stakes are high for both sides. A three-loss team could still potentially make the playoff, leaving LSU with no margin for error. Conversely, Texas is looking to avoid a loss that could complicate its path to the championship.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning remains a central figure in the pre-game analysis. ESPN reported that Manning’s completion percentage drops from 70% when playing with a clean pocket to 53% when facing pressure.

LSU’s defensive strategy will likely focus on disrupting Manning’s rhythm. If the Tigers can stop early runs and force third-and-long situations, they may be able to force Manning into difficult passing decisions.

LSU and Texas meet in Death Valley for the first time since 1953 pic.twitter.com/xNgcrFkDG8

— Post by @LSUfootball on X

Manning has faced significant protection issues throughout the season, having been sacked 27 times. Nine of those sacks occurred during his two true road games, highlighting a vulnerability that LSU will likely exploit.

LSU’s defense has proven effective at creating difficult situations for opposing offenses. The Tigers have forced opponents into an average of 8.41 yards to go on third down.

The matchup also features a contrast in quarterback stability. LSU’s Sam Leavitt has been described as a more dependable option when plays become messy, as he can work underneath and pick up yards with his legs. However, Leavitt has also been part of a unit that has seen 19 passes dropped, the second-highest total in the SEC.

While both teams have shown the ability to move the ball, finishing drives remains a challenge. Texas has been stout in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 39% of opponents’ trips to the area.

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LSU has struggled with efficiency in critical moments. During their recent matchup against Alabama, the Tigers amassed 457 total yards but managed to score only 13 points. That scoring drought was driven by four failed fourth-down attempts and two turnovers, ESPN reported.

The betting outlook suggests a low-scoring affair. The over/under for the game is set at 46.5 points, with the under being slightly favored at -115.

Metric	Texas Longhorns	LSU Tigers
Record	7-2	6-3
Wins vs. AP Top 25	4	2
Red Zone Defense	39% TD allowed	—
Third Down Defense	—	8.41 yards allowed

The volatility of Manning’s playmaking ability means Texas could either strike deep or struggle to sustain drives. If the Longhorns cannot establish the run, the burden falls entirely on Manning to play in a hostile environment.

LSU’s path to victory relies on their ability to capitalize on passing opportunities, especially given the high number of dropped passes their offense has endured. If those catches are made, it could change the complexion of the game.

The game is scheduled for Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.