Wall Street Expects $7.29 Billion in Third-Quarter Revenue for McDonald's

McDonald’s prepares to release its third-quarter earnings report before the market open on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with Wall Street anticipating normalized earnings per share of $3.38 and revenue of $7.29 billion according to CNBC.

Wall Street Sets Expectations for Third Quarter

Ahead of the Wednesday morning release, analysts surveyed by LSEG expect the company to post $3.38 in earnings per share alongside $7.29 billion in revenue as reported by CNBC. For the full year of 2026, Wall Street expects normalized earnings per share to reach $12.88, climbing from $12.20 in 2025 according to Yahoo. Last quarter, McDonald’s met analysts’ revenue expectations by reporting revenues of $7.10 billion, up 3.7% year on year, with same-store sales in line with analysts’ estimates according to Financialcontent. This quarter, the market is expecting revenue to grow 3.1% year on year, in line with the 3% increase recorded in the same quarter last year as noted by StockStory.

During the first half of 2026, McDonald’s earned $6.21 a share on an adjusted basis, breaking down to $2.83 in the first quarter and $3.38 in the second noted Yahoo.

Meeting the full-year consensus requires $6.67 in the back half of the year, representing about a 5% increase over the $6.34 earned during the same period in 2025 detailed Yahoo.

Currency fluctuations drove much of the early-year performance gains.

Management lowered its estimate for the full-year currency boost to roughly $0.15 a share down from previous projections of $0.20 to $0.30 reported Yahoo.

Wall Street Expects $7.29 Billion in Third-Quarter Revenue for McDonald's — Photo: cnbc.com

Home Market Faces Sales Decline and Traffic Pressures

Analysts are predicting an even worse third quarter for McDonald’s home market, with Wall Street anticipating same-store sales declined 0.5% according to StreetAccount estimates cited by CNBC.

Chipotle Mexican Grill executives noted last Wednesday that the restaurant industry saw traffic soften in October.

Investors are watching closely alongside economic concerns that have weighed on shares, which have fallen about 11% over the last year alongside expensive plans to upgrade restaurants and a market capitalization of roughly $186 billion as reported by CNBC.

Franchise Model Protects Operating Margins

With roughly 95% of its restaurants franchised, McDonald’s earns most of its profit as rent and royalties, keeping its operating margin in the mid-40s explained Yahoo.

Yahoo notes that based on TIKR’s EBIT metric, profitability dropped relative to the prior year during both of the previous two quarters, showing 44.3% versus 44.6% in the first quarter.

Profitability showed 46.5% compared to 47.7% in the second.

Peers have reported their results, offering a hint at sector trends as noted by StockStory.

Traditional fast-food sector investor sentiment has been upbeat, with average monthly share price gains of 15%.

McDonald’s shares rose 13.9% over the same duration and approach their earnings announcement facing an average analyst price target of $291.75 against a trading price of $265.43.

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