Young Voters and Turnout Gaps Drive Midterm Democratic Gains

Young and diverse voters flocked to the polls during the midterms while older constituents stayed home, driven by financial struggles and changing demographics.

According to two turnout-tracking experts who examined detailed results across a selection of states, a large share of the Democratic wave stemmed from enthusiastic, economically squeezed young and diverse voters casting ballots, alongside Trump supporters who chose not to vote.

These outcomes could translate into a mandate for reducing expenses and greater influence for young Latinos, but they also present risks for the Democratic Party if GOP voters return to the ballot box in 2028. Data scientists tracking the shift found that missing conservative voters influenced the outcome.

“It looks like more Trump voters who didn’t vote Republican stayed home rather than switching,” said Lenny Bronner, founder of Broome Street Labs and a data scientist formerly with the Washington Post, following an examination of detailed returns from 13 states.

Using precinct results from 11 states, we estimate ~75% of Democrats’ net gain came from the turnout gap and ~20% from vote switching. Exit polls imply 35% nationally, but turnout still leads. 8 in 9 Trump voters who didn’t vote GOP stayed home. pic.twitter.com/gXgTTwaoCY

— Post by @lennybronner on X

“Those voters are easier for the GOP to win back than those who chose a Democratic candidate,” Bronner said.

Bronner estimated that 75% of Democratic gains came from a turnout gap, while about 20% came from Republicans switching sides to vote for Democrats. His review incorporated participation numbers for Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, Iowa, Florida, West Virginia, Minnesota, and Michigan.

The share of Democratic gains stemming from the turnout gap ranged widely, from 40% in Texas to 133% in Michigan. Writing on X, Bronner said that partial results in Texas showed voters flipped their ballots more than expected, with 45% of Democratic gains coming from voters switching away from Republicans.

“So far, Texas is the only state where our model indicates that persuasion explains more of Democrats’ net gain than turnout does!” he wrote.

Young voter turnout surges amid economic pressure

Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political science professor, also documented a pronounced turnout surge for young voters facing high grocery bills, student loan debt, and sluggish wages, based on detailed results from Georgia and Colorado. Trump’s older voter constituency proved more likely to stay home, McDonald wrote in a Substack post.

As per @Thorongil16's suggestion, I added TX (note: it's only 12 counties that cover 63% of the vote) and it bucks the trend! So far, Texas is the only state where our model indicates that persuasion explains more of Democrats net gain than turnout does! pic.twitter.com/S7x4iDQdIu

— Post by @lennybronner on X

In both Colorado and Georgia, 18- to 25-year-olds registered the biggest jump in turnout compared with the 2022 midterms, while participation fell among voters older than 40. McDonald said that the nation witnessed the most diverse electorate for a midterm election in United States history, fueled by significant increases in Latino turnout over 2022 levels.

“Latinos are markedly younger than whites, so if their turnout increases it means more younger voters are in the mix,” McDonald wrote.

Democrats romped in state elections, leaving uncertainty about how they will wield their newfound power. Even in Florida, where Republicans continued to dominate elections, GOP turnout lagged behind 2022 figures despite a registration drive that increased Republican registration by 400,000, McDonald wrote in another Substack post.

Rick DeSantis’ drive to purge voter rolls, which affected mostly Democratic and unaffiliated voters, likely played a role in shaping the electorate. McDonald suggested that DeSantis’ politics appeared aimed at suppressing opposition votes rather than rallying Florida Republicans.

Voter turnout extremes across the states

Statewide participation varied dramatically across the country. Turnout increased almost 13 points in Mississippi since the last midterms, pushing the state close to electing its first Black senator since Reconstruction.

Conversely, turnout fell to a historic low in South Dakota, where Republicans maintained legislative dominance. South Dakota experienced higher turnout in 2022, potentially aided by contentious statewide ballot measures for Medicaid expansion, which passed, and marijuana legalization, which failed.

State	2026 Turnout Share
Maine	More than 63%
Minnesota	More than 63%
Michigan	More than 63%
Oklahoma	37.1%
West Virginia	33.3%

The University of Florida’s calculations, produced for the Election Lab and compared by Stateline to prior cycles, measure turnout as a share of the voter-eligible population while excluding noncitizens and ineligible felons.

South Dakota’s midterm vote remained heavily Republican, though Democrats managed to gain legislative seats for the first time in 18 years by capturing four new seats for a total of 12 in the 105-seat legislature.