Arizona GOP candidates express concern over early voting returns

As the final days of the 2026 election cycle tick down, Arizona’s Republican candidates are grappling with a reality that appears at odds with their campaign goals. In a private virtual rally reported by the Arizona Mirror, several GOP hopefuls expressed candid concern over early voting returns, signaling a shift in strategy as they scramble to mobilize their base against a backdrop of tightening margins.

The call, which brought together candidates for statewide and federal office, functioned as a reality check for the party faithful. Alexander Kolodin, a state lawmaker who is running for Arizona Secretary of State, set the tone for the evening by addressing the recent performance of early ballots. “I have to say, after we had a gangbusters start to the week, the drops today were quite less than I was hoping for,” Kolodin told those in attendance. He emphasized that while a sweep of the executive branch remains the target, the current pace of returns is falling short of the required performance metrics.

The Math of the Midterms

The urgency stems from a specific internal benchmark: an “R+10” margin. Candidates on the call, including Warren Petersen, were blunt about the distance between their current standing and that goal. According to Petersen, recent ballot drops have left the party at an “R+1.2” margin. While the final voter registration figures show a Republican advantage of nearly 300,000 voters, the candidates warned that this registration edge is functionally useless if those voters do not actually cast their ballots.

Arizona state senate president warren petersen r gilbert attends a senate session thursday april at the state capitol in phoe

The data suggests a disconnect between the GOP’s registration numbers and their current turnout. While Republicans maintain a lead in total ballots returned—a 16,600-ballot edge as of October 28—the participation rate tells a more complex story. Democrats have seen 43% of their voters return ballots, compared to 36% for Republicans. Meanwhile, independent and minor-party voters, who have shown a tendency to lean left this cycle, remain largely untapped, with only 22% having cast their ballots early.

Technology as a Turnout Engine

To bridge this gap, the candidates are pushing a “no chill” approach to the final days, centered on hyper-targeted voter outreach. The strategy relies heavily on digital tools designed to turn personal contact lists into election-day mobilization lists. Petersen explicitly promoted the use of the Numinar app and an application from Turning Point USA, which allow volunteers to monitor which of their personal contacts have already voted.

“We literally have races that are going to be decided with hundreds of votes every day,” Petersen said, noting that roughly one-third of Republican voters may stay home without a direct nudge from a trusted source. The goal is to reach every potential voter in their personal orbit before the polls close on Election Day, effectively shifting the responsibility of turnout onto the shoulders of the campaign’s most dedicated volunteers.

The Stakes of the Final Push

The concern expressed on the call is compounded by public polling, which has consistently placed the GOP slate behind their Democratic opponents. Recent surveys have shown candidates like Andy Biggs trailing Katie Hobbs by 12 points, with similar double-digit gaps reported for Kolodin and Petersen in their respective races. For the candidates, the message is clear: they cannot afford to rely on a massive, last-minute Election Day surge.

Governor katie hobbs speaking legislative forecast

“We don’t want to have to have a Herculean Election Day and win because we’ve let them get way too far ahead of us on the early vote,” Petersen said.

The Democratic party’s ability to “front load” their turnout has clearly unsettled the GOP leadership, forcing them to pivot from a message of expected victory to one of desperate, granular mobilization. As Biggs told the attendees, the campaign has become a “one-note piano,” where the only melody that matters is the daily, incremental collection of votes.

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With less than a week remaining, the question is whether these digital tools and the intensified rhetoric from the candidates will be enough to close the gap created by the early voting disparity. For the Arizona Republican Party, the next few days represent a test of whether their extensive voter registration advantage can be converted into a decisive political result, or if the current momentum indicates a broader shift in the electorate that traditional mobilization tactics can no longer overcome.

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