Cork woman calls US midterm election results a political earthquake

Cork woman calls US midterm election results a political earthquake

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A Political “Earthquake” in America: What the Midterm Earthquake Means

A Cork woman living in Florida has described the U.S. midterm election results as a potential political “earthquake” after a stunning reversal saw Donald Trump’s Republican Party stripped of control of both the Senate and the House.

For Cathy Tobin, speaking from her Florida base, the election marks a critical moment of reckoning. “I think I’ve been in the States here long enough to see the pendulum swing fully from one side over to the other,” she said. “This is really just the beginning, because some really serious work is going to have to go in. I think that the Trump presidency has revealed some really terrible truths about us all over here. I think a lot of harm has been done, and this is definitely a step in the right direction towards repair. But the repair will have to run very deep and will have to be meaningful.”

A Historic Defeat and the End of an Era?

Clodagh Harrington, a lecturer in American politics at University College Cork, noted the election produced a series of unexpected results that defied conventional expectations. “I’ve been talking about this now for over a week to various people. What I was saying was the House is definitely going to go Democrat, that is kind of a given, but I’d be much more cautious about the Senate,” she explained. “Certain states, like Texas and Kansas, places you never really think would have been anything but Republican, have flipped.”

This seismic shift has naturally raised a central question for the nation’s future. “I’m very curious and interested to see now what happens next,” Harrington pondered. “And is this the beginning of the end of the Trump era?” While the answer remains unknown, the political aftershocks are already being felt far beyond Washington D.C.

The Global Ripple Effect: Allies and Adversaries Watch

In a rare occurrence, a U.S. election may have actually been decided by foreign policy. President Trump has spent nearly two years overturning decades of American foreign policy, unsettling allies and adversaries alike. Now, both are watching to see how this electoral setback will shape his actions abroad. For Iran, Israel and Ukraine, the stakes go well beyond who controls Congress.

The results directly influence whether Trump pursues a deal with Tehran or more war, how much Washington’s longstanding support for Israel erodes, and how hard he pushes Kyiv to accept terms to end Russia’s war. Democrats will have new tools to challenge Trump, but he still has considerable freedom to act abroad, leaving world leaders with a question: Will defeat make him more willing to compromise, or more determined to get his way?

A Weakened President’s Path: Redemption or Retaliation?

There is a real and present danger that a president weakened at the ballot box may seek redemption on the battlefield. Iran is celebrating Trump’s midterm setback but is bracing for what comes next: a possible new U.S. strike or a fresh push for a deal. The Trump administration’s own vice president was explicit about the election’s cause. Vice President JD Vance stated in a lengthy X post that “the reason we lost is the war,” a sentiment echoed by President Trump, who admitted in a call with Fox News that the conflict was partly to blame for the Republican’s losses.

Seeing little left to lose, Trump may resume strikes in the upcoming months, seeking to secure his legacy with fewer concerns about voter backlash with the midterms already passed. However, diplomacy offers another path. Talks that stagnated over the summer have picked up in the past week, with Tehran sending officials to Qatari mediators who are circulating proposals with Washington. Before the vote, Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Trump agreed to its seven conditions.

Democratic Congress Seeks to Constrain Trump’s Power

Back in Washington, the new Democratic-controlled Congress is already plotting its strategy to rein in a president who will face a legislative deadlock over the remaining two years of his term. The likely battles in the coming months will focus on finding ways to constrain the White House – most clearly through Congress’s control of the budget.

US president Donald Trump is greeted by Taoiseach Micheál Martin as he arrives at Farmleigh House in September. Photograph
Photo: The Irish Times

“The Democrats taking control of both houses gives them unprecedented leverage – especially using the budget,” said Ryan Crocker, a former career diplomat and diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute.

They could hold hostage the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act, demanding concessions on Iran or limits on Trump’s authority in order to pass the Senate version of the bill that would authorize about $1.15 trillion in national defense spending for 2027. A progressive foreign policy thinktank suggested inserting language into a continuing resolution that would prevent Trump from using money authorized by Congress to fund the war in Iran, as well as in Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza.

Ireland's Success with Trump

In Ireland, there is a view that the country has done quite well over the past two years in its dealings with Trump. Former Irish ambassador to the US Dan Mulhall said, “We haven’t been a target for Donald Trump as other countries have been, such as Denmark and Canada. I think we’ve actually had a relatively good innings with the Trump administration.”

Still, Mulhall believes Trump will be very limited in what he can do domestically following the loss of control of Congress. “The question is whether he will therefore pivot to be more active on the international front. That would be the normal response of a president who finds himself with Congress ganging up against him.” He is sanguine that the war in Iran might not be escalated, noting, “It never is with Trump.”

The Paradox of a Democratic Sweep

The Democratic sweep could increase the chances of another Republican being elected president in two years’ time. John Deasy, the former TD who was also Irish Government envoy to the US Congress, pointed out this paradox. He said, “The Democratic sweep makes it more likely another Republican will be elected president in two years’ time. Two hundred and fifty years later Americans still vote on the basis of checks and balances between the two parties.” So, he cautions that good relations will need to be maintained with both sides, as the focus remains squarely on who holds the White House.

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