Davao Occidental Faces Potential Dry Spell by Late November 2026

Davao Occidental may enter a dry spell by the end of November 2026, according to a meteorological forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

SunStar Publishing Inc. reported that the warning was presented during Pagasa’s 201st Climate Forum. The agency defines a dry spell based on specific rainfall reductions: either three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, representing a 21 to 60 percent decrease, or two consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, which signifies a reduction greater than 60 percent.

Current data suggests the province is trending toward these thresholds. As of October 25, 2026, Pagasa-Davao reported that Davao Occidental has continued to receive below-normal rainfall for the month.

“If this pattern continues through November, the province is likely to experience a dry spell,” said Engr. Alan Ray Ribo of Pagasa-Davao.

The weather patterns are not uniform across the broader region. While the northern parts of Davao Oriental and other nearby provinces—including Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and Davao del Sur—recorded near-normal rainfall between October 1 and October 25, the southern reaches show a different story.

The southern portion of Davao Oriental has remained below normal during this period. Engr. Ribo warned that if these dry conditions persist, parts of Davao Oriental could also reach dry condition status by late November.

The discrepancy in rainfall creates a localized risk for agricultural and water management sectors in the southern provinces. While northern neighbors maintain near-normal levels, the southern provinces face a tightening window of moisture availability.

In response to the forecast, the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council-Davao Region (RDRRMC-Davao) is currently implementing the region’s El Niño Action Plan.

The council is focusing its mitigation efforts on five critical sectors to manage the potential impact of the dry conditions:

Food security
Water security
Energy security
Health security
Public safety

To support these efforts, the Crisis Communication Committee has launched an El Niño Communication Plan. This initiative is designed to provide targeted community sectors with the information necessary to build local resilience against the impending weather shift.

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