Democrats win key New Jersey counties in presidential and congressional races

‘Blue tsunami’ reshapes New Jersey, leaves GOP at a crossroads

Democrats won across New Jersey on Tuesday, flipping key counties and down-ballot races.

At the heart of the blue wave were counties that had recently swung Republican. In 2021, GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli won Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester counties. Four years later, those same counties flipped back to the Democratic column for both the presidential and congressional races. The scale of the shift was undeniable, with Democratic nominee Mullock securing victories in these regions.

The Districts Tell a Story of Two New Jerseys

The results were not uniform, however, revealing a state deeply divided politically. The 2nd Congressional District, once a Republican stronghold, was a microcosm of this change. The district, home to many white working-class voters, has been “a little bit all over the map” in its voting patterns in recent years, according to Alyssa Maurice, assistant director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University.

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“There are really diverse pockets in Atlantic and Cumberland,” Maurice said. “It contains some of the poorest counties in New Jersey, and these are voting blocks that we’ve seen really big swings from in recent years.”

Matthew Hale, an associate professor of political science at Seton Hall University, believes the numbers will ultimately show that white working-class men in the district decided that “enough is enough.” He noted that while Van Drew might be respected, he lacks the personal connection that resonates with voters.

“He’s probably not the guy that people would say they want to have a beer with,” Hale said. “You’re never going to see him in an Eagle sweatshirt like you saw Zack in.”

Democrats win key New Jersey counties in presidential and congressional races

Just a few miles away, in the neighboring 4th District, a different reality played out. Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher H. Smith, a fixture in Washington since 1981, defeated his Democratic challenger Rachel Peace by a commanding 18 percentage points. The veteran congressman has long been known as a “very sort of moderate” and “not a Trump acolyte,” a distinction that appears to have insulated him from the anti-Trump sentiment that fueled the blue wave elsewhere.

Smith’s long tenure has allowed him to build a reputation for constituent service, a trait that has solidified his support. “He focuses an enormous amount of his effort on constituent services, on making sure that he’s helping people with federal government problems,” Hale said. “When you’ve been around that long, you’ve helped most of the people in the district, one way or another.” This deep-rooted connection was evident in his past performance; Maurice noted he won by nearly 36 percentage points in 2024.

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The Blue Wave Didn’t Spare Local Republicans

The Democratic tide was not limited to federal races. The wreckage was widespread for the GOP in local contests across the state. In Monmouth County, Democrats marked their first countywide victories since 2008. In Hunterdon County, they picked up a commissioner seat, a feat not accomplished since 1979. In South Jersey, Democrats successfully narrowed the GOP supermajority on the Board of County Commissioners in Atlantic County and, more significantly, won outright control in Cumberland County.

The Republican strategy of trying to hold onto Trump’s coalition while appealing to moderates and independents has not been successful in New Jersey, according to Alyssa Maurice.

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“I think the Republican strategy of trying to hold onto Trump’s coalition and appeal to moderates and independents has not been successful in New Jersey,” Maurice said, pointing to Trump’s persistent unpopularity in the state.

“This was such a shellacking for him … I think what you’re going to see is more and more Republicans are going to start saying that they’re not with him,” Hale said. “I certainly think that they are tired of losing. And it’s out of necessity as much as math.”

The question now is what comes next.

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“They can decide we are principled fiscal conservatives,” Rasmussen observed. “They can decide that they are MAGA but not Trump. Whatever they want to be, they can be.” The days of “utter fealty to Trump are gone,” Hale added, creating a potential opening for the state GOP to chart a new course, one that is less focused on national politics and more on local issues and pragmatic governance.

The 2024 election in New Jersey has proven to be more than just a victory for one party.