Gallows Humor on a Private Call Before a Historic Midterm Wipeout
Six days before a midterm election that would shatter the Republican congressional majority, more than two dozen of President Donald Trump’s top strategists logged onto a private video call to confront a grim reality. The mood opened with gallows humor and talk of cyanide. Tony Fabrizio, the president’s chief pollster, kicked off the session by asking his colleagues, Do you want the white pill first, or the black pill first?
Tim Saler, a top Republican data consultant, laid out two stark possibilities. The optimistic scenario assumed the $400 million Maga Inc super political action committee was reaching its target voters. The other forecast a total wipeout. James Blair, who left the White House to steer the midterm strategy, told the group to laughter, I’m getting my affairs in order. I suggest everybody else do the same,
according to four participants on the call. For roughly 30 minutes, the conversation drifted through funeral arrangements, prison food, presidential pardons, and brief jokes about fleeing the country, with Blair remarking sarcastically about Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, At least Bibi won. He’ll protect us.
The scope of the Republican wreckage would become clear a week later when Democrats stormed to a huge House majority and won control of the Senate. In the Senate, Republicans defended a map requiring Democrats to compete in states untouched by blue victories in decades. In the House, Trump’s team shattered the traditional once-a-decade redistricting cycle to carve out safer conservative territory. Yet none of these maneuvers could insulate the party from a president who lost public trust on the economy, paired with an unpopular war in the Middle East that closed the Strait of Hormuz and drove gas prices past $4 a gallon.
In the final two years of his presidency, Democrats will try — and fail — to reverse everything President Trump has done. These efforts will meet the same fate as the Radical Left’s previous attempts: failure. pic.twitter.com/VnhVHxaMAr
The Warning Signs Buried in White House Slide Decks
Over the summer, James Blair had circulated a stark slide deck to West Wing officials connecting Republican polling numbers directly to the Iran war timeline. The data demonstrated how the Democratic advantage ballooned during active hostilities, shrank during memorandum of understanding talks, and spiked again when the ceasefire collapsed. By the end of July, Democrats held a 10-point edge on the generic congressional ballot. In highlighter yellow, the slide’s bottom line warned that Republicans could retain the House only if the Democratic edge shrank to four points, adding that an extended ceasefire, an open Strait of Hormuz, and falling gas prices were absolute prerequisites, while noting that a D+10 result would likely cost them the Senate.
The final election outcomes proved even bleaker than the internal warnings. Trump’s party was on track to lose the national popular congressional vote by roughly 13 points, according to New York Times estimates, shaping up as the worst midterm defeat in half a century since the aftermath of Watergate. Privately, even before polls closed, Trump lamented the geopolitical fallout, asking associates, If we never went into Iran, what do you think would happen in the midterms?
"There was a seemingly endless string of investigative pieces revealing that Mr. Trump, his family and their close associates had used the presidency to enrich themselves brazenly…" https://t.co/lZOWh4Siws pic.twitter.com/iKlfbSBOUb
A Second Term Defined by Overreach and Rising Costs
Having campaigned on promises of no new wars and lower prices, the administration delivered an active foreign conflict alongside soaring fuel prices and persistent inflation. Advisers noted that after returning from political exile following the January 6, 2021 insurrection, Trump operated under the illusion that standard political rules no longer applied to him. Over nearly two years, hubris calcified into the governing philosophy of his second term.
Voters increasingly focused on questions of ethics and personal enrichment. Investigative pieces revealed that Trump, his family and their close associates had used the presidency to enrich themselves brazenly, pushing corruption to the top of voter concerns by early October, according to a Fox News poll. Simultaneously, a global trade war launched in 2025 inflicted economic pain on agricultural states like Kansas, Texas, and Iowa. While administration officials like White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly maintained that the president only acts in the best interest of the American people
with no conflicts of interest, internal frustration mounted as Trump dedicated public remarks to interior renovations, golf courses, and his new White House ballroom rather than inflation or border security.
| Strategic Metric | Republican Projection | Actual Election Result |
|---|---|---|
| National Popular Congressional Vote | Competitive / Narrow Loss | Lost by approximately 13 points |
| Senate Control | Favorable Map / Defense Target | Lost majority; Democrats flipped key seats |
| House Majority | Protected via Mid-Decade Redistricting | Democrats won a huge majority |
| Texas Attorney General Race (Ken Paxton) | Trump-Endorsed Safe Seat ($300M spent) | Lost by 12 points |
Schumer Recruited Veteran Politicians to Expand Senate Map
Democrats capitalized ruthlessly on these vulnerabilities. In May 2025, Schumer arrived at Wildflower Farms, an upscale resort in New York’s Hudson Valley, for a secretive retreat with donors and party officials to expand the Senate map. Schumer spent months wooing popular former North Carolina governor Roy Cooper and former senator Sherrod Brown—telling the 73-year-old Brown, If you retire and we lose the majority by one vote, you won’t enjoy your retirement—to run for the Senate.
In the House, recruiters went hunting in districts Trump had carried by 10 points or more, fielding candidates with distinctive biographies including military veterans, doctors, farmers, a smokejumper, and a Tejano music star. Paxton ultimately lost by 12 points.
As Republicans are grappling with the aftermath of major midterm losses and voter anger, President Trump is talking about how the ballroom will be "the most beautiful in the world." pic.twitter.com/0ueOWTmAiw
More on White House
President Trump is expected to speak publicly for the first time since the midterm results shortly. Pool reporters are gathering at the White House.
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