Kirk Herbstreit sees CFP path for Oregon after first rankings

Three losses haven’t ended Oregon’s season. For the Oregon Ducks, they earned a No. 23 debut in the first College Football Playoff rankings anyway, and ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit is the one saying plainly what the committee’s math implies: the door is not closed. A week after the program fired its offensive coordinator and the head coach suggested his starting quarterback might be done for the year, Oregon beat No. 20 Northwestern on Halloween and suddenly the conversation in Eugene has shifted from damage control to a playoff path, as both si.com and sports.yahoo.com reported.

Seven days before the rankings dropped, Oregon parted ways with offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, and coach Dan Lanning said he did not anticipate Dante Moore returning this season. Then came a 34-27-style statement on the field: Oregon beat Northwestern on Oct. 31 at Autzen Stadium, and the first CFP Top 25 left Oregon at No. 23 despite the three defeats.

I still feel like there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for Oregon. The Ducks have a real shot to make a run at the CFP, but they HAVE to win out… pic.twitter.com/bnSDKQo94Z

— https://x.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/2117833178425487852

From Write-Off to Contender in Seven Days

Herbstreit did not hedge when he laid out the scenario. He sees a route that runs through four of the biggest names left on the schedule.

“They find a way to beat a top 20 team in Northwestern. Now they got Ohio State on the road. I’m not saying they’re going to win. I’m just saying if somehow, some way, they figure out a way to knock off Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington. I feel like there’s a path,” Herbstreit said.

The Ducks’ actual playoff probability sits around five percent right now, per the reporting, but that number is almost entirely a function of Saturday. A win over No. 12 Ohio State at The Horseshoe in Columbus would give Oregon its third victory over a team in the committee’s initial rankings, its best win by the committee’s own measure, and the head-to-head edge over the Buckeyes in any two-team tie. Oregon already beat No. 20 USC 41-27 on the road and No. 25 Boise State 34-27 at home. Its only loss to a committee Top 25 opponent was a 17-15 defeat to No. 8 UCLA.

Kirk Herbstreit sees CFP path for Oregon after first rankings — Photo: sports.yahoo.com

“I feel like there’s a… a light at the end of the tunnel. Now they have to win these games, which is going to be very tough to do. But if they did and they finished at 9-3, they’re not done. After seeing tonight’s ranking, I feel like Oregon’s in the mix still,” Herbstreit said.

The Math Still Requires a Perfect November

Oregon’s remaining schedule is Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington, and the Ducks’ chance at a third consecutive playoff berth hinges on winning out. Football Power Index is already higher on Oregon than the committee is, placing the Ducks No. 12 in the Week 10 FPI with seven of eight opponents ranked in the model’s top 50. Portland State was the exception.

The path to Indianapolis, should Oregon win its final four, still requires help. The scenario the sources lay out has UCLA winning out and handing Illinois and USC additional conference losses, plus USC beating No. 4 Indiana on Nov. 14 before falling to UCLA in the regular-season finale. If enough two-loss Big Ten teams stumble, a 9-3 Oregon could reach the conference title game and earn an automatic bid.

Kirk Herbstreit’s Secret Oregon Ducks Take Will STUN the rest of College Football

Raiola Finds a Rhythm in Columbus Looming

In analyst Jay Johnson’s first game calling plays, Raiola completed 22 of 31 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern, his first 300-yard game as a Duck. His biggest moment came in the fourth quarter, a 75-yard touchdown to Dakorien Moore after the Wildcats had cut the lead to one. Oregon’s offensive line also started the same five linemen in back-to-back games for the first time all season, a continuity that could matter in a stadium holding more than 100,000 fans. Defensively, the Ducks held Northwestern to 1-for-8 on third down after halftime, a needed answer against an Ohio State offense averaging 36.6 points per game while its own defense allows just 15.5.

None of this guarantees anything. Five percent is five percent until Saturday night in Columbus changes it. But the question Herbstreit raised is what happens if they keep finding ways to win.