Montana ranchers move away from Trump as House race leans Republican

Diesel Spikes and Beef Imports Push Montana Ranchers Away From Trump

Wally Congdon is done voting for Donald Trump. The 69-year-old Montana cattle rancher and member of the Montana Cowboy Hall of Fame cast his ballot for Trump in 2024, driven largely by frustrations with the Biden administration’s immigration agenda. Two years later, surging diesel prices, skyrocketing fertilizer costs, and an ongoing trade war with Canada have completely shifted his calculus. Worse still, the administration’s push to import foreign beef has directly undercut domestic producers like Congdon, who raises highlander cows roughly 30 miles east of Missoula. “We’ve had enough of this crap,” Congdon told USA Today, stating that he plans to send a Democrat to Washington in the midterm elections instead.

Congdon’s political pivot is not an isolated incident in cattle country. Independent-minded agricultural voters are making traditionally safe red-state races unexpectedly competitive across the country. In Montana's western congressional district, a seat Republicans considered secure for months, voter preferences have shifted dramatically. USA Today reported that nonpartisan elections handicapper the Cook Political Report moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” in September, before shifting it to a complete “toss-up” in October. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged the tightening margin at a recent campaign event in Bozeman, telling supporters he was “very depressed” to see Montana’s 1st Congressional District listed as a toss-up.

Tariffs and Supply Costs Strain Farmer Loyalty

A punishing convergence of economic pressures is testing the long-standing loyalty of farmers and ranchers to the Republican Party. Tariffs enacted by the Trump administration have driven up supply costs while threatening vital export markets. Steve Sheffels, a wheat farmer and president of the Montana Grain Growers Association, told USA Today that steel tariffs have made replacing essential equipment prohibitively expensive, noting he hasn’t purchased a new combine since 2013 because “the price of parts at the store is ridiculous.”

Global conflicts have compounded these domestic financial strains. The war in Iran has disrupted vital shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, throwing global oil markets into turmoil and driving up the costs of diesel—the foundational fuel of American agriculture—and fertilizer, which relies heavily on natural gas for production. Sheffels pointed out that a fellow farmer shelled out roughly $3,500 a week just for fuel during the winter wheat harvest.

Foreign Beef Decrees Infuriate Domestic Livestock Producers

These mounting operational costs collide with a persistent agricultural crisis. Years of severe drought and shifting weather patterns have devastated pasture conditions, shrinking the overall U.S. beef and dairy cattle herd to a 75-year low and sending grocery prices climbing. In an effort to make staples like steak and hamburger more affordable for consumers, Trump signed a decree in September easing tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef imports to be sold below market value.

Those decisions drew anger from livestock producers and congressional Republicans. While some remain skeptical that the economic turbulence will push many ranchers to cast ballots for Democrats, they noted that disillusionment with Trump is clearly rising, making producers “more likely to just sit out.”

The Midterm Scramble and the Limits of Federal Relief

In response to the growing discontent, Trump and Vice President JD Vance have barnstormed red states, visiting Montana ahead of the midterms. During an event in Bozeman, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson discussed the competitive race in Montana’s western congressional district, while the White House rolled out an $8 billion Department of Agriculture program to provide one-time payments offsetting fall harvest diesel costs, alongside executive actions to loosen rules on cheaper off-road diesel and efforts to work toward a trade detente with Canada.

Yet local agricultural leaders remain deeply skeptical of these late-stage interventions. Walter Schweitzer, president of the Montana Farmers Union, likened the administration’s recent financial relief measures to “pissing on a forest fire.” Meanwhile, Aaron Flint, a Trump-endorsed conservative radio host and veteran running in the neck-and-neck race against Democratic union leader and former smokejumper Sam Forstag, acknowledged that farmers are hurting and has actively opposed Trump’s foreign beef import efforts. Flint argued to USA Today that livestock producers still fared much worse under the Biden administration, pointing to his endorsement from the Montana Stockgrowers Association as proof that farmers trust him to protect their interests in Washington.