Here’s a number that stops you in your tracks: $54 billion. That’s the amount of public health costs we could save by 2040, according to a fresh analysis of Senator Martin Heinrich’s permitting reform bill. These savings, alongside the prevention of an estimated 6,700 deaths, are tied directly to a 20% reduction in power sector emissions the bill is projected to deliver. The analysis, released just days ago by the nonpartisan Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, adds a powerful new dimension to the debate over Heinrich’s Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, a 417-page proposal that has become a central battleground in the fight over America’s energy future.
Heinrich, the ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, has positioned the bill as a necessary tool to untangle a federal permitting process he calls “broken.” The core idea is simple: speed up approvals for renewable energy projects and transmission lines, which currently face years of delays. In a statement reported by Source NM, Heinrich framed the stakes in household terms: “Americans are tired of paying more in utility bills while projects that could lower costs sit stuck in the planning phase for years.” The new analyses from four independent groups, including Grid Strategies, appear to back up that claim, projecting annual electricity bill savings of $50 to $78 per household by 2040, and a cumulative $2.5 billion in savings by 2035.
The Hidden Cost to the Suburbs and the Data Center Windfall
The economic mechanism driving these savings is twofold. First, the bill aims to shrink the massive queue of power plants, energy storage facilities, and energy storage projects waiting for grid interconnection approval. When demand grows but supply can’t keep up, costs inevitably rise for everyone. “It takes years for projects to connect to the grid and be able to deliver that energy,” Nat Keohane, president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, explained during a virtual news conference. “When demand is growing and supply can’t keep up, costs go up.”
Second, and perhaps more controversially, the bill targets data center developers. Under current policy, these massive energy consumers often pass the significant costs of grid upgrades and new infrastructure on to residential and small commercial ratepayers. Heinrich’s bill would make it illegal for them to do so, requiring instead that data centers themselves foot the bill. Grid Strategies, a power sector consulting firm, crunched the numbers on this specific provision and found it would force data centers to pay an estimated $55 billion to utilities over the next decade. That’s $35 billion more than they would pay under existing law.
A Proven Path to Emission Reductions?
The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions’ model shows that this combination of faster transmission and more renewables would slash power sector emissions by about 20% by 2040.
This reduction is significant.
The Backlash on the Ground
The bill has ignited opposition from tribal and environmentalist groups, who argue its provisions will fast-track fossil fuel production and reduce tribal input on sensitive developments.
Last week, the tension was palpable outside Heinrich’s Albuquerque office. Protesters from the YUCCA Alliance rallied against the bill, chanting and holding signs that accused the senator of trading their heritage for corporate convenience.
“Americans are tired of paying more in utility bills while projects that could lower costs sit stuck in the planning phase for years. These independent analyses show exactly what we stand to gain by fixing our broken permitting system: lower electricity bills, cleaner air, healthier communities, and more reliable energy infrastructure.”
Heinrich and his supporters counter that the bill will prevent vital carbon-free energy and transmission projects from facing years of regulatory delays. The bill’s sponsors, including U.S. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), are now pushing to shepherd it through both chambers of Congress before the next session begins next year, betting that their new majorities in the House and Senate provide the best chance to get something signed into law.
The Calculus of Power and Time
The political calculus is complex. U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.) has already announced she does not support the bill as written, leaving Heinrich’s strategy vulnerable within his own state’s delegation.
Adding another layer, Heinrich may take over as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in January, a position that would give him even more power over the bill’s provisions. But he maintains that the country cannot wait. In an emailed statement provided to Source NM, he was unequivocal: “I’m not going to wait, and I’ll negotiate in good faith, whether I’m the Chair or the Ranking Member.” His priorities, he stated, are clear: reducing energy costs for New Mexicans and protecting public lands like Chaco Canyon and the Pecos River.