Paul Hembekides Projects Bauers to Join Diamondbacks for M

Paul Hembekides Projects Bauers to Join Diamondbacks for $54M

by

The Milwaukee Brewers are facing a cold reality this offseason: one of their most impactful contributors from a World Series-winning campaign may be heading for the exit.

Jake Bauers, who transformed from a journeyman on the brink of retirement into a central power threat, is currently at a crossroads that could reshape the National League.

As reported by Sports Illustrated, the Brewers have extended a qualifying offer to Bauers, but industry consensus suggests he is likely to decline it in favor of a lucrative, multi-year contract on the open market. The stakes are clear for both parties. For Milwaukee, the goal is maintaining the momentum of a championship season, while for Bauers, the priority is securing the long-term payday he has rightfully earned.

Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney

The Arizona Diamondbacks Connection

Speculation regarding his next destination has already begun to crystallize. ESPN’s Paul Hembekides, speaking on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney, projected that Bauers will land with the Arizona Diamondbacks on a three-year, $54 million deal. Hembekides argued that the fit is logical, noting that Arizona currently lacks a long-term solution at first base.

He’s going to land in Arizona at three years and $54 million, Hembekides stated. They have no answer in the short term at first base. I actually buy into the profile being a bit more sustainable than the public seems to think. I don’t think he was merely a product of Milwaukee’s genius. I think he will keep hitting. I think he will do it in Arizona.

The numbers support the urgency of Arizona’s search. The Diamondbacks finished the 2026 season ranked 25th in the league with only 166 home runs. Bauers, who tallied 26 homers in 2026, would have immediately slotted in as the team’s second-most prolific power hitter, trailing only Nolan Arenado’s 30.

For a team that finished 86-76 and narrowly missed the postseason, adding a bat of that caliber could be the difference between a near-miss and a playoff berth.

Paul Hembekides Projects Bauers to Join Diamondbacks for $54M

Moving Arenado Affects Diamondbacks Interest in Bauers

Despite the projection, the path to Arizona is not entirely clear. Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has publicly acknowledged discussions regarding the possibility of moving eight-time All-Star Nolan Arenado from third base to first. Should that shift occur, the vacancy that makes Bauers such an attractive target would effectively vanish.

This creates a complex economic and strategic puzzle. If the Diamondbacks commit to keeping Arenado at the hot corner, they remain a primary candidate to pursue Bauers. However, if they pivot to internal reshuffling, it could force Bauers—and his representatives—to look elsewhere for that multi-year guarantee.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has also weighed in, suggesting his expectation is that Bauers will ultimately decline the qualifying offer, signaling his intent to test the broader market.

The Brewers, meanwhile, find themselves in a difficult position. Retaining Bauers would be the ideal outcome for a franchise looking to repeat as World Series champions in 2027. Yet, the financial reality of baseball often dictates that breakout performers seek the highest bidder. If Bauers does indeed decline the qualifying offer, his return to Milwaukee becomes an increasingly remote possibility.

The departure of a player who led a championship team in home runs is a loss, but it is also the natural byproduct of success. Bauers transformed his career, and now he is positioned to capitalize on that shift.

Whether he lands in the desert or finds another home, his transition from a role player to a marquee free agent stands as one of the most remarkable individual arcs of the 2026 season.

Keep reading

Read next