PPIC poll shows support for California billionaire tax has slipped

Support for California’s proposed billionaire tax has slipped in the final stretch before Election Day, shifting from a comfortable lead to a narrow deficit. According to a new survey from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), 46% of likely voters now support Proposition 40, while 52% oppose it, with 2% remaining undecided. This represents a reversal from September, when a PPIC poll showed 52% of likely voters backed the measure.

This swing isn’t happening in a vacuum. It is the result of a campaign funded by opponents. Opponents of the tax, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, have poured more than $300 million into a campaign designed to fight Prop. 40. This spending has fueled a wave of TV and digital advertisements attacking the tax, while simultaneously promoting two “counter-measures”—Propositions 41 and 42—that could undercut the tax even if voters approve it.

The strategy to nullify the wealth tax

The battle over Prop. 40 involves whether a tax on billionaires is fair. While Prop. 40 seeks to impose a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of Californians with a net worth of $1 billion or more to offset the Trump administration’s cuts to healthcare programs, the opposition has introduced two separate measures to block its path.

Proposition 42, which would ban new state taxes on personal property like investments, is currently polling at 51% support. Meanwhile, Proposition 41, which aims to block new taxes that sidestep California’s cap on state spending, is essentially tied with 48% in favor and 49% against. If Prop. 42 passes, it could effectively nullify the billionaire tax.

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“Since last month, we’ve seen declining support for Prop. 40, particularly among Democrats and independents,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s survey director. “Propositions 41 and 42, which could effectively nullify Prop. 40 even if it was passed, are now polling better than the billionaire tax.”

This creates a precarious situation for proponents of the tax. The tools meant to kill the tax are more popular than the tax itself. This shift highlights a growing tension within the Democratic base and organized labor, who have been divided on the approach, despite a late wave of support from unions.

A broader shift in the California electorate

The volatility surrounding the billionaire tax is mirrored in other high-stakes ballot measures. Prop. 39, which would require voter ID, has seen its support implode. While the measure held majority support in polling last spring, 58% of likely voters now oppose it, compared to 41% in support.

The political environment for the state's top office remains far more stable. In the race for governor, Democrat Xavier Becerra maintains a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton. The PPIC survey shows Becerra leading 61% to 37% among likely voters, a 24-point gap that has remained almost unchanged since July.

Measure	Support (Yes)	Opposition (No)	Undecided
Prop. 40 (Billionaire Tax)	46%	52%	2%
Prop. 41 (Spending Cap Protection)	48%	49%	—
Prop. 42 (Personal Property Tax Ban)	51%	—	—
Prop. 39 (Voter ID)	41%	58%	—

The PPIC survey, conducted between October 16 and 22, included 1,086 likely voters surveyed online in both English and Spanish, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%.

As Election Day approaches, the question is whether Californians want to tax their billionaires.