Typhoon Cempaka to Enter PAR Monday; No Landfall Expected

Typhoon Cempaka approaches Philippine waters

Typhoon Cempaka is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning, according to reports from BusinessWorld Online.

The storm is moving west-northwestward and is projected to receive the local name Samuel once it crosses into the monitored area. While the typhoon’s presence is imminent, PAGASA weather specialist Aldczar D. Aurelio stated during a press briefing that the system is not expected to make landfall or directly affect any part of the country.

The weather bureau expects the typhoon to have a brief stay within the PAR. It is forecast to move north-northwestward by Monday afternoon before recurving toward the east-northeast, likely exiting the northeastern boundary of the area by Monday evening or early Tuesday, as reported by the Inquirer.

New Typhoon Cempaka to enter the PAR, possible Samuel / Cempaka

Monsoon rains trigger flood warnings

Even without a direct hit from the typhoon, the northeast monsoon, known locally as “amihan,” is already impacting several regions. This seasonal weather pattern is expected to bring rain to Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Aurora, and Quezon, BusinessWorld Online reported.

PAGASA has issued warnings for these specific areas regarding the potential for flooding and landslides caused by moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. In other regions, the impact remains more localized.

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Isolated light rains are anticipated across Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, the rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region, the remainder of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and CALABARZON. According to BusinessWorld Online, no impacts are expected in those specific locations. Meanwhile, the rest of the country may see rains from the easterlies, which could also present risks of flooding and landslides.

Typhoon intensifies with rising winds and rough seas

The typhoon has gained strength as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Data from the various reports show a consistent trend of intensification prior to its expected turn.

Typhoon Cempaka to enter PAR Monday, to exit PH Tuesday — Pagasa dlvr.it/TWFbx2 pic.twitter.com/nxc6oH0ig7

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Metric	Reported Value	Source Attribution
Maximum Sustained Winds	120 kph	BusinessWorld Online / Inquirer
Maximum Gustiness	Up to 150 kph	BusinessWorld Online
Movement Speed	20 kph	Inquirer

The sea conditions are expected to worsen as the storm approaches the periphery of the country. The Inquirer reported that the northeast monsoon will likely cause moderate to rough seas over the seaboards of northern and Central Luzon within the next 24 hours.

Looking further ahead, the weather bureau warned that very rough seas could affect northern Luzon seaboards starting Tuesday, which may prompt a formal gale warning as early as Monday.

Oceanic data provided by Ocean Weather Services suggests the storm is creating waves up to 8.5 meters (28 feet) as of recent tracking. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center provides ongoing monitoring of these maritime conditions.

Typhoon Cempaka to Enter PAR Monday; No Landfall Expected — Photo: Inquirer

Tracking the storm’s development

The current weather disturbance has undergone several stages of development over the past few days. On Saturday, a low-pressure area outside the PAR was upgraded to a tropical depression, according to the Manila Standard. By Sunday, it had intensified into a tropical storm, as noted by GMA Network.

The storm’s trajectory has been a primary focus for meteorologists. While it was initially spotted 2,400 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon, it has since moved closer, with BusinessWorld Online placing its last location 1,440 kilometers east-northeast of the same area.

Weather Today Forecast Nov 09, 2026 | Typhoon CEMPAKA (SAMUEL) 150 KM/H Gusts | PAG ASA Weather

Forecast models suggest a peak in intensity will occur shortly, followed by a weakening trend beginning on Tuesday, according to the Inquirer. Detailed maritime and atmospheric tracking continues through the Japan Marine Weather Advisory.

As the typhoon moves through its expected window of entry and exit, the primary concern for local authorities remains the secondary effects of the monsoon and the rising sea states along the northern coastlines.