VT Leaders Discuss How Election Results Could Shape State Agenda

Vermont’s political trajectory depends on whether the state maintains a divided government or shifts toward a unified Democratic-Progressive front, as all 180 legislative seats and the governorship are decided this Election Day. While Democrats have held both chambers for over two decades, the loss of a veto-proof supermajority following the 2024 election has already shifted the balance of power, forcing legislative leaders to compromise with Phil Scott to pass laws.

The stakes are essentially a choice between two opposing economic philosophies. On one side, Governor Scott advocates for deregulation and tax cuts to combat a declining demographic trend. On the other, Democratic Progressive candidate Amanda Janoo proposes taxing high-income earners and second-home owners to fund government programs. As WCAX reported, the outcome of these races will determine which of these agendas becomes law in Montpelier.

The End of the Supermajority Era

For years, the political math in Vermont was simple: Democrats held more than two-thirds of the seats in both the House and Senate. This supermajority gave them the power to pass bills and have enough votes to overcome vetoes from Republican Gov. Phil Scott. That era ended after the 2024 election, when Republicans gained ground in both chambers.

The shift wasn’t a total takeover, but it was a functional one. During the previous two years in the Senate, a majority of 17 out of 30 seats was held by Democrats and one Progressive ally, though they lacked a two-thirds majority. The House mirrors this trend. Without the numbers to override every veto, the legislative process has changed, and Governor Scott has asserted far more influence over the legislative process.

This tension has manifested in a record number of vetoes and veto overrides, creating a legislative environment defined by friction rather than flow.

Two Paths for the Vermont Economy

The divide between Scott and Janoo is political. Paul Dame, chair of the Vermont GOP, argues that divided government means more Republican representation and progress on tax cuts. He points to specific goals like repealing the military pension tax and giving tax breaks to seniors on Social Security and young families with the child tax credit.

“Even though Republicans didn’t gain a majority, we really made an impact,” said Paul Dame, chair of the Vermont GOP.

If Scott wins a sixth term, the political dynamic will largely stay the same as in the last biennium. The governor will continue to act as a fiscal brake on a Democratic legislature, ensuring that any new spending is tempered by his preference for a leaner government. However, the alternative—a Janoo victory coupled with Democratic control in the House and Senate—would be a big shift in what comes out of Montpelier.

Lachlan Francis, chair of the Vermont Democratic Party, views this potential shift as an opportunity to move forward at a much faster pace on the issues facing Vermonters. He argues that the state’s most pressing issues—heating, food, and healthcare—are at stake for Vermont families. Janoo’s proposals to generate new revenue from top earners may be considered, depending on how federal cuts affect the state’s financial situation in January.

A Shift in Legislative Appetite

Perhaps the most telling sign of where Vermont is heading isn’t the gubernatorial race, but the mood within the Statehouse itself. Historically, even with a Democratic majority, progressive ideas like taxing the wealthy often stalled. This happened either because of the veto threat or because fiscally moderate Democrats in the Senate.

That internal dynamic is changing. Recent signals suggest that Statehouse leadership appears more willing to embrace an agenda similar to Janoo’s. The prospective chairs of the two most powerful financial committees in the legislature have already signaled their support for a more aggressive tax strategy.

Rep. Emilie Kornheiser, who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, expressed a desire to deliver relief for working Vermonters by asking the wealthiest to pay their fair share. Similarly, Sen. Andrew Perchlik, a Democratic Progressive representing Washington County who leads the Senate Appropriations Committee, has explicitly praised Janoo’s vision, experience, and leadership as what is needed to deliver for Vermonters.

This alignment suggests that even if the governor’s office remains Republican, the legislative push for progressive taxation will be more coordinated and aggressive than it has been in years.

As the state prepares for Election Day, the question isn’t just who wins the governor’s mansion, but whether the “compromise era” of the last biennium was a fluke or the new permanent reality of Vermont politics.