Analysis Suggests Mary Peltola Will Win Alaska Senate Race Despite Trump Claims

The Alaska Senate Race and the Ranked-Choice Reality

Days after the polls closed, the U.S. Senate race in Alaska remains one of the few national contests left to be decided. As of November 6, 2026, the data suggests that Democratic challenger Mary Peltola is positioned to overtake incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan once the ranked-choice voting (RCV) tabulation is complete. While both campaigns have issued confident “path to victory” memos, an independent analysis by The New York Times indicates that Peltola’s lead is likely to hold, contradicting claims that voters were fundamentally confused by the presence of a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot.

The stakes in this race extend beyond the seat itself. With Democrats having already secured a 54-member majority in the Senate by flipping six other seats, the Alaska result serves as a high-profile test of the state’s ranked-choice system. This electoral mechanism, which requires voters to rank candidates by preference, has become a flashpoint for local political friction, with a ballot initiative to repeal the system currently trailing in the count.

The Voter Confusion Argument

The campaign reached a chaotic peak last month when the Department of Justice attempted to intervene, filing a lawsuit to block the certification of the race should the incumbent lose. The DOJ argued that the inclusion of Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot created inherent voter confusion, an argument that a federal judge rejected last week. Following this, President Donald Trump publicly called for Alaska officials to reallocate votes from the minor candidates—including the second Sullivan—directly to the incumbent, a maneuver that lacks any grounding in legal or historical precedent.

Data analysis reported by Reason provides a different picture of voter behavior. Rather than being misled by the names, a significant portion of those who chose the non-incumbent Daniel J. Sullivan appear to have used their ballots to express a preference for change. According to the analysis, nearly 30 percent of those voters ranked Peltola as their second choice, while only 16 percent selected the incumbent senator as their backup. This suggests that the “spoiler” candidate did not merely siphon votes through confusion, but acted as a vehicle for voters who were already inclined to support the Democratic challenger.

Counting in the Last Frontier

Logistical realities remain the primary obstacle to a final result. Alaska, characterized by its vast geography and reliance on air transport for mail delivery, is currently working through a backlog of ballots. According to reporting from Democracy Docket, the Division of Elections is holding approximately 20,000 early votes and 27,000 absentee ballots that are expected to be processed by November 10. The state has until November 18 to finish the count, with an additional week allotted for formal certification.

The Peltola campaign maintains that the current trends in early in-person and mail-in voting favor their candidate. In a statement, campaign manager Cheryl Bruce noted, “The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska’s next United States Senator.” Conversely, the Sullivan campaign’s memo argues that the remaining uncounted ballots will provide the narrow margin needed to retain his seat. The incumbent’s team relies on the assumption that they will secure roughly 49.5 percent of the remaining two-way vote, a narrow path that hinges on the final, remote ballots making their way through the arctic weather and logistical hurdles of the state.

Alaska Senate race still undecided, Peltola and Sullivan separated by slim margin

“Mr. Sullivan might not even claw back half of a point in ranked-choice tabulation, which would not be enough to overcome Ms. Peltola’s expected advantage,” reports The New York Times.

As the count continues, the divide between the two campaigns highlights the tension inherent in Alaska’s modern election process. While the incumbent argues that the RCV tabulation will eventually swing in his favor—an ironic position given his party’s active push to repeal the system—the current data indicates that the electorate’s preferences are more complex than simple name recognition. Whether the final tally confirms a shift in power or a narrow survival for the incumbent will depend entirely on the remaining ballots from the state’s most isolated corners, which are expected to be fully tabulated by the middle of the month.

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