Hawaii legislative races remain too close to call; five GOP incumbents trailing in early results

Several Hawaii legislative races remained too close to call early Wednesday morning, with five Republican incumbents facing defeat and Democrats flirting with a pickup of six seats that would further cement their supermajority in the state Capitol, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported.

The second printout of results, representing most votes cast, showed Democrats potentially expanding their dominance in a midterm year without a presidential race on the ballot to drive Republican turnout. While final tallies could still shift as remaining ballots are counted, the current margins point to a significant reshaping of the 76-seat Legislature, where 37 seats were contested Tuesday, including 31 of the 51 House seats and six of the 25 Senate seats.

Hawaii GOP rallies for key legislative gains, executive seats

A Green Party Contender Within Striking Distance of History in West Maui

In the Waihee-Lahaina-Lahainaluna district, Democrat Sne Patel held a narrow 42% to 41% lead over Green Party candidate Pa’ele Kiakona in the race to unseat Republican Rep. Elle Cochran, who trailed with just 18%. If Kiakona pulls out a victory, he would make Hawaii history as no third-party candidate has ever been elected to the state Legislature. Cochran, first elected to the House in 2022 as a Democrat, switched parties in March during this year’s legislative session. Both Patel, president of the Lahaina Town Action Committee, and Kiakona, a high-profile advocate for survivors of the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires representing the grassroots organization Lahaina Strong, campaigned in the fire-ravaged district where recovery remains a central issue.

Republican Incumbents Face Tight Contests Across the Islands

Democrat Jamie Wataru, a state-employed journeyman plumber and former Hawaii president of the United Public Workers union, led Republican Rep. Joe Gedeon 53% to 47% in the Hawaii Kai-Kalama Valley district. In Kapolei-Makakilo, Republican Rep. Kanani Souza held a modest 52% to 48% advantage over Republican challenger Sheila Medeiros in a rerun of their Aug. 8 primary election that was initially declared a tie but later invalidated by the Hawaii Supreme Court because county election officials mistakenly gave two ballots to voters registered in a different district.

WATCH NOW: Hawaii Election Results and Real-Time Analysis

Other Republican incumbents trailing in close margins included Rep. Garner Shimizu, who held 49% against Democratic challenger Micah Aiu’s 51% in their third race—Aiu beat Shimizu in 2022, then Shimizu won a rematch in 2024. Rep. Julie Reyes Oda also faced defeat, trailing Rose Martinez 50% to 51% in Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point, where Martinez had served one term before losing to Reyes Oda in 2024. Rep. Diamond Garcia trailed Democratic challenger Anthony Paris 49% to 51% in Ewa-Kapolei, while Rep. Chris Muraoka maintained a 53% to 47% lead over Democrat Kalehua Kaopua in Waianae-Makaha.

Open Seats Produce Mixed Results for Both Parties

In races without incumbents, Democrat Danielle Bass dominated Republican Kelly Kitashima 56% to 42% for the Senate District 18 seat in Mililani. Bass was appointed by Gov. Josh Green on Aug. 9 to fill the vacancy left by state Sen. Michelle Kidani, who resigned June 30 for health reasons; the Hawaii Republican Party had selected Kitashima for the special contest, while nonpartisan candidate Max Hanna collected 2% after being picked in a random draw by the state Office of Elections.

Another open Senate seat remained too close to call, with former Republican House member Bob McDermott leading Democrat Markus Owens 51% to 49% to succeed Sen. Kurt Fevella. McDermott, who served 16 years in the state House from 1996 to 2002 and again from 2012 to 2022, had tied Fevella in the primary and won a random drawing to break the tie; Fevella had petitioned the Hawaii Supreme Court to invalidate that tie on grounds similar to the Souza case, but filed after the deadline. Democrat Corey Rosenlee, a public school teacher and former Hawaii State Teachers Association leader, held an overwhelming 64% to 36% lead over Republican Danny Degracia to succeed Rep. Elijah Pierick, who had left his House seat to run for the Senate but lost badly to incumbent Sen. Rachele Lamosao.

Democrats also won other open seats, with attorney Tricia Nakamatsu defeating Republican Wallyn Christian to replace retiring Sen. Karl Rhoads, and Ian Ross easily beating Republican Tony Silva to succeed Rep. Della Au Belatti, who had left to run for lieutenant governor.

Political Scientist Sees Structural Challenges for Hawaii GOP

University of Hawaii political scientist Colin Moore projected that the number of Republicans in next year’s Legislature was more likely to decline, reversing gains achieved in recent years.

“I don’t predict it’s going to be a good year for the Republicans just because of these background conditions of President Trump’s unpopularity and the fact that he’s not on the ballot, which usually lowers Republican turnout,” Moore said. “If they keep what they have, I think that would be a pretty fantastic result for them.”

Final results are expected after additional batches of votes are counted, with several races remaining close enough that trailing candidates could still pull out victories in the coming days.