How Latino Voters Swung to Democrats in Midterm Elections and Texas

Latino voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2026 midterms, helping the party reclaim both chambers of Congress and shatter Republicans’ 30-year grip on Texas, where voters elected the state’s first Latino governor and sent Democrat James Talarico to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1988.

The reversal, which played out nationwide but was especially pronounced in Texas, marked what UnidosUS president Janet Murguía called the largest Latino turnout ever in a midterm election. PBS News spoke with María Teresa Kumar, CEO of Voto Latino, who described the shift as a direct response to immigration enforcement and economic strain rather than a permanent realignment.

told MSNOW

Texas breaks a 30-year Republican hold

For three decades, no Democrat had won a statewide office in Texas. That streak ended Tuesday when Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat from the Rio Grande Valley, became the state’s first Latino governor, while James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race. Talarico’s victory marked the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988, and NBC exit polling showed that 61% of Latino men—with whom Trump had made particular inroads—voted for Talarico.

Kumar told PBS News that young Latino voters drove the surge. “Young Latinos showed up,” she said, adding that for this generation, the vote was “absolutely to protect their parents.” The demographic is roughly a generation-and-a-half younger than the average American voter, making them the swingiest of swing voters because they lack deep family voting histories and instead vote based on issues.

Garcia: One of the big stories coming out of tonight is the enormous swing that Latino voters are now re-entrusting Democrats… We have to deliver on taking on ICE. We have to deliver on passing real immigration solutions and reform… pic.twitter.com/H5yMH0l4yV

— https://x.com/Acyn/status/2117822649686777864

ICE raids and grocery bills drove the swing

The shift from 2024 to 2026 was stark. In 2024, Trump captured more than 40% of Latino votes, many motivated by promises to lower prices. This year, a UnidosUS poll of over 3,000 Latino voters conducted by BSP Research found that 17% of 2024 Trump voters backed Democratic House candidates, returning the electorate to historic patterns of roughly two-thirds supporting Democrats. Cost of living and inflation topped concerns, with more than half of respondents citing food and grocery costs as particular burdens.

Kumar described the immigration issue as personal for nearly every Latino family. “There’s not a Latino, whether they work in Wall Street or they work in the fields, that doesn’t know someone that’s been caught in the dragnet,” she told PBS News, referring to ICE raids. She noted that 36% of Latinas surveyed in April were skipping meals. Janet Murguía, president of UnidosUS, told the Los Angeles Times that Latino voters “resoundingly rejected” Trump’s “extreme policies,” particularly watching families and neighbors detained while costs rose.

People wait in line for mid-term election voting in Baldwin Park, CA on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 — Photo: latimes.com

“Latinos are not a monolith until you come for our families,” Kumar said on PBS News. “And that’s basically what we saw last night.”

The Rio Grande Valley flips back

The southern border counties proved decisive. Kumar explained to PBS News that the Valley had flipped toward Trump in 2024 because residents felt chaos from border crossings and struggled financially. “They took a chance on Trump,” she said. But Trump “overstepped.” She recounted meeting builders in the region who said construction costs had nearly doubled—from $300 to $630 per square foot—because deportations removed their workers, while tariffs made planning impossible.

The Los Angeles Times reported that Ronaldo Salgado, whose father Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was killed by ICE agents in Houston, placed his “I Voted” sticker on a memorial to his father while casting his ballot for Talarico. “I cried as I was casting my vote because I was doing it in honor of my dad,” he told MSNOW. Meanwhile, Tejano singer Bobby Pulido defeated Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz by more than 20 percentage points in a South Texas district.

James Talarico wins Texas Senate election over Ken Paxton

What Democrats must deliver in two years

In August, Voto Latino surveyed Latino voters and identified what she called a “pothole agenda”: accountability on ICE, a pathway to citizenship stated out loud, and economic relief including SNAP benefits, minimum wage increases, and tax relief. She added that even Supreme Court term limits topped voters’ minds.

Kumar cautioned that if Democrats “start criminalizing” Latino communities, they will lose them again. The devil’s advocate view, voiced by GOP strategist Giancarlo Sopo in the Los Angeles Times, suggested Republicans misread Latino sentiment by conflating asylum seekers with criminals. But the data suggests voters responded to tangible economic pain and family safety, not just opposition to Trump. Kumar praised the candidate quality, exemplified by Hinojosa’s Valley roots, while economic pressures also drove these voters.

Hispanic voters are the story of 2026 The progress the GOP made with Hispanic voters over the past decade is mostly gone, and whatever is left is on probation. After shifting more than 20 points toward Republicans in 2024, they swung 27 to the left last night. It was the largest… pic.twitter.com/U4N5LFMGKl

— https://x.com/GiancarloSopo/status/2117976441589571926