When the results rolled in Tuesday night, Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics, didn’t mince words. He called it “easily the worst election for a party since 1974″—a 100-year flood. And the water swept across the map: Democrats flipped the House and the Senate, took Texas, and captured Kansas, according to Associated Press calls reported by Forbes and detailed by MyNorthwest. Texas sent Democrat James Talarico to the Senate. Kansas sent Adam Hamilton, who beat Sen. Roger Marshall and became the first Democrat Kansas has sent to the Senate since 1932.
That’s the headline. But the story underneath is about why. Two years ago, economic anxiety sent voters to Donald Trump after they looked at the economy under Joe Biden and saw things going sideways. This time, voters put the blame squarely on Trump.
If you are watching this and just have a passing familiarity with elections, just understand you're seeing something special, a 100-year flood. Easily the worst election for a party since 1974.
The Economy Voters Actually Felt
The country isn’t in a good place. Gas is high—averaging $5.18 in Washington state on Election Day, about a dollar above the national average, according to AAA, with the state ranking third in the country for how much of a family’s budget goes to groceries. Buying a home? For a lot of young families, forget it. Parents look at their kids and worry they won’t have a prosperous future.
Going into the election, prices weren’t even voters’ top worry. Per Political Wire’s summary of CNBC’s final All-America Economic Survey, 36% of respondents picked government corruption as their top issue, followed by grocery costs at 34% and gas at 23%. That should sting for a president who promised to drain the swamp. His own financial disclosures show about $1.2 billion from his family’s crypto ventures last year. He is flying on a new Air Force One donated by Qatar, and the White House said no final decision has been made about what happens to it after he leaves office. Is there any doubt he will try to keep it?
“Everybody’s profiting,” Trump said when asked about the crypto money he and his family raked in.
Most families in Kent and Lakewood would say they aren’t profiting.
A Repudiation, Not Just a Protest
Former Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna told Seattle’s Morning News that Tuesday’s election was a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism. The sentiment echoed through the airwaves. Leyla texted KIRO Newsradio’s election night special during the broadcast: “I’m not a Democrat or Republican, but I go for common sense!! People are voting against Donald Trump. They are tired of him.”
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, whose firm co-led the CNBC survey, offered a warning that cuts both ways: voters assume “most elected officials are corrupt.” That’s a message for every party, including the one that won Tuesday.
There’s a certain beauty to divided government. The White House has to find common ground with Congress. That creates friction. And in normal times, friction means compromise.
Washington Voters Bucked the National Trend—Then Some
Here at home, the results looked different. While the nation fired Republicans, Washington voters didn’t fire anybody. They gave Democrats more. According to The Washington State Standard, Democrats were leading in nine Republican-held state House seats, including all four in Clark County’s 17th and 18th districts. If those leads hold, they clear a two-thirds supermajority in Olympia. Those leads could shrink, but the direction is clear.
Remember that friction I mentioned was good for D.C.? It would be good for Olympia too. But judging by Tuesday, it won’t be coming from across the aisle.
Progressives Challenge Fiscal Caution
So it’ll have to come from inside the party. On one side stand the old-school Gary Locke and Chris Gregoire Democrats, who are urging leaders to be careful with money. On the other is the progressive wing of Seattle Rep. Shaun Scott, a democratic socialist. You could see that split on the ballot Tuesday night. In the 32nd District, progressive Rep. Cindy Ryu was leading Democratic Sen. Jesse Salomon by 352 votes.
Democrats Face Voter Impatience
It was a good night for Democrats. But voters are ticked—ticking, as in a clock running down. The clock’s ticking on Democrats now. Consider the whiplash since 2016: Trump, a Democratic House, Biden, a Republican House, Trump again, and now this. Voters aren’t looking for a team. They’re looking for somebody who’ll make things better. They’re clearly tired of Trumpism. Look at the numbers from Tuesday night. So, Democrats, you’re up. The ball’s in your court. The clock’s running. Make it count.
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