Alaska Senate and governor races await ranked-choice tabulation

Alaska voters settled into a waiting game Wednesday, with Democrats already securing control of the U.S. Senate nationally but two of the state’s most consequential races—and the future of its election system itself—hanging on a ranked-choice tabulation that could take until Nov. 18 to complete. According to advocate-news.com, no candidate in either the Senate or governor’s contests had secured more than 50% of first-choice votes as of Wednesday evening, meaning Alaska’s unique ranked-vote general election will determine the winners if the threshold is not met. Yahoo.com likewise reported that both major races remained too early to call as the count continued.

The timeline stretches to Nov. 18 because Alaska accepts ballots from overseas voters for up to 15 days after the election, while domestic absentee ballots have a 10-day window that remains critical for rural communities accessible only by air or water. State elections officials have targeted that mid-November date to run the ranked tabulations, a process that redistributes votes from eliminated candidates to voters’ second choices until someone clears 50%.

In the Senate race, two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola in a contest shadowed by litigation and allegations of partisan tricks that attracted the attention of the U.S. Department of Justice. The open governor’s seat pits former state lawmaker Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, who is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the office in a generation, against three Republicans including business owner Bernadette Wilson, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump. A ballot measure seeking to repeal Alaska’s open primary and ranked-vote system also remained too early to call Wednesday.

Alaska Senate and governor races await ranked-choice tabulation — Photo: yahoo.com

Fifteen Days Until the Ranked Reckoning

The mechanics driving the delay reflect Alaska’s geography as much as its politics. With mail service in far-flung hinterlands dependent on air service, the state allows up to 10 days to receive absentee ballots sent from within the U.S., and 15 days for overseas voters, including service members. After news broke Tuesday night that Democrats had won enough seats to gain control of the Senate, Peltola addressed her supporters, telling the crowd it will take time to ensure every vote is counted from every community.

“It’s going to take a long time to make sure we’re counting every vote from every far-flung hinterland community, from every tiny outpost, from all of our service members serving overseas, our young people going to colleges,” Peltola said.

Both campaigns urged patience as the ballot count continues. The 50% threshold looms large: if no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the rankings come into play, a process that could shift the outcome in both races depending on how voters stacked their second and third choices.

Alaska Senate race remains razor-thin as ranked-choice voting could decide winner

A Senate Race Shadowed by Litigation

The contest between Sullivan and Peltola dominated headlines ahead of Tuesday’s election. With less than two weeks before Election Day, the Justice Department sued at President Trump’s direction seeking to block certification of the race if Sullivan loses, citing potential confusion with another Sullivan on the ballot, retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan. A federal judge dismissed the lawsuit, but the department has appealed, leaving the certification question in legal limbo.

Last week’s New York Times report that senior aides to Peltola seemed to have helped recruit the lesser-known Sullivan revived longstanding beliefs among the senator and his backers that the candidate was running to sow confusion. Drawing on interviews with a former Peltola campaign manager dismissed shortly before the August primary, the report pointed to text messages and campaign finance records suggesting that a candidate-recruiting operative received payment from a group backing Peltola. Federal authorities have confirmed the existence of a criminal investigation in the matter.

Peltola denied any involvement. The candidate, who has rejected claims that he was running at the behest of Democrats, has not responded to messages seeking comment in the last week. The senator elevated the issue in his closing argument to voters and questioned Peltola’s denials. On Wednesday his campaign expressed confidence in Sullivan’s chances, “despite the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of Alaska” and “despite a bloodbath for Republicans everywhere else in the country.”

The Governor’s Office Up for Grabs

Kreiss-Tomkins expressed excitement about the early vote results when speaking to supporters on election night, casting himself as a consensus builder in the race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy and saying he would work across party lines to address the state’s challenges.

“What a night this is for the future of our state,” Kreiss-Tomkins said.

He faces three other Republicans, including Wilson. Republican officials in the state encouraged voters to list all three GOP contenders in their rankings to improve the party’s chances of success under the ranked system. At a Wasilla rally last month backing Republican candidates such as Sullivan and Wilson, Trump labeled ranked voting a “scam cautiously optimistic for the days ahead.” Tony Knowles, Alaska’s most recent Democratic governor, held office for consecutive terms from 1994 to 2002, while an independent served as governor from 2014 to 2018. Wilson said in a statement Wednesday that she was “cautiously optimistic for the days ahead.”

The Fight Over Ranked Choice Itself

For the second time in as many years, the electorate faced a ballot question on whether to abolish the open primary and ranked-vote general election framework that has governed Alaska elections since its adoption. Voters approved the system in 2020, it took effect for elections in 2022, and voters narrowly rejected a repeal effort two years ago. With the Nov. 18 tabulation date looming, the outcome of that measure—and the two major races—remains unresolved, leaving Alaska’s political future in a state of suspended animation until the final overseas ballots are counted and the rankings are applied to determine whether the state keeps or scraps its experiment in electoral reform.

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