Handicappers Preview Dwyer, River City, and Pumpkin Pie Stakes

Handicappers Preview Dwyer, River City, and Pumpkin Pie Stakes

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The NFL season has its winter end after the Super Bowl, and Major League Baseball calls it a year once the World Series concludes, but horse racing operates on a relentless calendar where championship-deciding autumn stakes give way to the next card almost immediately. A week out from Breeders’ Cup Saturday, handicappers face a solid stakes lineup at both Belmont and Churchill Downs, highlighted by the Dwyer, the River City, and the Pumpkin Pie.

In the Dwyer, Ted Noffey enters as the favorite according to Daily Racing Form past performances and picks. Rumblings of Ted Noffey’s return to action circulated for quite some time before preparations finally ramped up, with an initial landing spot once targeted for the Perryville on October 17 at Keeneland before connections shifted to this race. That detour means Ted Noffey picks up the double layoff line in past performances, denoting a break of at least one full calendar year for the undefeated champion.

Playing against an undefeated horse at a short price is never comfortable, but questions linger about whether Ted Noffey is more than an early developer who simply outpaced his class last year. Sea Strike figures to vie for favoritism and might even edge clear at the betting windows, particularly with a cutback to a one-turn mile that could work to his advantage after stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in the Travers. Still, it was the move to 1 1/8 miles around two turns in the Curlin that elevated Sea Strike to a much higher level, leaving the exact impact of this distance shift open to debate.

With a hot pace anticipated that makes a front-running victory unlikely in the Dwyer, deeper contenders like Bravaro and White Smoke Rising warrant a look, but Igniter emerges as a compelling alternative for a one-turn mile. Igniter did not run poorly in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby last out, though a flat-footed break left him uncomfortable and buried far back before making a wide rally into the homestretch. That effort followed a dominant win in the Ellis Park Derby and a strong closing kick in the Maxfield behind Deep Flame, who subsequently ran an excellent second in the Englishman’s tour de force in the Allen Jerkens.

Six published workouts logged since the Pennsylvania Derby suggest Igniter comes into the Dwyer in sharp form and positioned for a cleaner trip against a tougher bunch.

Mercante Benefits from Lone Speed Advantage in River City

Over at Churchill Downs for the River City, Mercante arrives at an appealing 8-1 morning line as a 6-year-old who may have seen his absolute peak winters ago at Turfway Park, but the race shape sets up ideally for his running style. Trainer Brian Knippenberg has long maintained that Mercante performs best when he has a target to chase, yet he finds himself as the lone speed in this field, creating an opportunity to grab an early lead and dictate the pace. A trip in the Coolmore Turf Mile last out at Keeneland served primarily as a tune-up for this assignment, mirroring a similar plan from the previous year when Mercante started poorly and finished far behind front-running winner Wolfie’s Dynaghost.

At Belmont Park, Amalfi Drive steps into the Pumpkin Pie Stakes as the lone speed going a one-turn mile, a setup that mirrors her sharp May 1 victory in a second-level allowance race at Churchill Downs. Miscast during prior campaigns as a two-turn router, Amalfi Drive begins to look far more formidable in the Pumpkin Pie once her route tries and lone turf attempt are discarded, offering tactical value that transcends her 10-1 morning line.

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