Big Island Weather Forecast: Trade Winds Bring Showers and Shifting Swells for October 31, 2026
Moderate trade winds are driving clouds and persistent showers across windward and mauka zones. According to the latest local updates compiled by Big Island Now, daytime conditions will shift into scattered afternoon downpours over the leeward and Kona slopes, while upcoming shifts in the Pacific weather pattern promise cooler, drier air by early next week.
Regional Breakdown: What to Expect Across the Big Island
Weather patterns vary sharply depending on your elevation and side of the island. Hilo and Puna face the heaviest moisture tonight, with cloudy skies and an 80 percent chance of occasional showers yielding overnight lows from 67 to 73 degrees near the shore down to 59 to 64 degrees at 4,000 feet. Saturday brings mostly cloudy skies with numerous morning showers before activity eases into scattered afternoon downpours.
Over on the Kona side, conditions remain drier. Tonight brings mostly cloudy skies with scattered evening showers and an overnight chance of rain sitting at 50 percent, with lows reaching 70 to 76 degrees near the shore. Saturday morning breaks mostly sunny before giving way to partly sunny skies and afternoon showers.
Waimea and Kohala will experience east winds up to 15 mph tonight, bringing numerous evening showers and an 80 percent chance of rain for the early hours. Meanwhile, Waikoloa remains largely clear, holding just a 20 percent chance of isolated showers and overnight lows ranging from 71 to 76 degrees near the shore.
Pattern Changes, Swells, and Marine Conditions
The current stable trade wind setup will hold through the weekend, but a notable shift arrives late Sunday into Monday. An upper-level trough sweeping across the north-central Pacific will drag the tail end of a frontal boundary down the island chain. This transition will bring breezy northeasterly trades and drier air in its wake, offering a welcome break from muggy conditions.
Mariners and beachgoers should prepare for rising surf. An incoming north-northwest swell is projected to bring seas in excess of 10 feet to exposed waters, generating advisory-level surf along north- and west-facing shores starting Sunday into Monday. This swell may also create potential harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo.
Fire weather concerns remain low through Saturday thanks to recent rainfall, though moderate risks will return early next week as the drier airmass settles over the region.
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